Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 150751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather continues today before a cold front arrives
this evening. Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm
are expected by afternoon into the early overnight hours.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above- normal
for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold front will
push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the start
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another warm day across the area, with highs well into the 70.
  Some readings in the low 80s likely SE VA and NE NC.

- Scattered showers move into the region this afternoon (mainly
  north). More widespread showers are expected this evening.

Latest analysis reveals sfc high pressure anchored in the
western Atlantic early this morning. To the W/NW, ~1005mb sfc
low pressure over W NY, with the associated sfc cold front
extending back into the lower OH/TN River Valleys. WV satellite
imagery showing an ongoing area of (weakening) convection as
storms cross the central and southern Appalachians and the mid-
south. Debris cloudiness associated with the upstream convection
has allowed some thin cirrus to push into the region this morning.
Those clouds and breezy SW flow have kept temperatures mild
this morning, with 07z readings in the mid 50s to low 60s over
much of the region.

The cold front will approach the state from the west later
today. Dewpoints will rise into the mid to upper 50s this
afternoon and this evening, with PWAT values increasing to
~1-1.25". CAMs continue to trend toward showing some scattered
showers this afternoon, with more widespread anafrontal (post-
frontal) showers pushing across the area this evening. This
translates to delaying onset of PoPs, keeping much of the area
dry through early to mid afternoon. Expect rain chances do
increase around midday closer to the front across northern VA,
with the best chances pushing over the rest of the area late
this aftn (N) and this evening (central and south). There will
be some modest instability present, so a few rumbles of thunder
will be possible in these showers, but no widespread severe
storm issues are anticipated.

Not looking like a wash out in any sense of the word with QPF
late today and tonight on the order of one tenth to one quarter
inch, though there may be localized higher amounts with
localized convective features.

The front drops across the area after 00z, and will be well
south of the area by sunrise Saturday. Cold air advection will
take some time to filter into the area, and so while aP cooler
night is forecast tonight, lows will range from the mid to upper
40s north to low to mid 50s central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

The front will be well south of the area to begin the day on
Saturday. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will allow for drying
conditions to quickly return. Temperatures will still be above
normal, but not quite as warm as we`ve been seeing over the past
few days. Expect highs this weekend to be in the upper 60s to
around 70 inland with low to mid 60s along the coast. Strong low
pressure crosses the Canadian Prairies into Ontario/Quebec Sun
into Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across into the
area Sun night into Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout
the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a
few light showers along of just off the SE coast Sunday evening
into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our
south. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary, so
low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the
west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

An area of low pressure moves into Quebec Monday morning, with
a weak shortwave forming along the broad troughiness well back
to the west/southwest. There may be a shower or two across the
southeast Monday afternoon as this shortwave slides through.
Additionally, cooler air will arrive behind the front, so high
temperatures on Monday will be closer to normal, topping out in
the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Tuesday looks to be the
coolest day of the period as northwest flow increases on the
backside of the trough. Surface high pressure will also build
into the region. Winds will become breezy on Tuesday, with highs
only getting into the upper 40s across the north/Eastern Shore
and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Overnight temps Monday night and
Tuesday night will be chilly, dipping down into the upper 20s
across the west Monday night, and around freezing for everyone
else. Temperatures moderate for the midweek period, as
additional northern stream shortwave energy pinwheels south
across the northern mid-Atlantic. In its wake, shortwave ridging
rebuilds from the SSW, allowing temperatures to quickly recover
into the 60s for the latter half of next week. Early morning
lows bounce back into the 30s Wed, and into the 40s Thu and Fri
mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 06z/15 TAF
period. SCT-BKN high clouds from the convection over the
northern mid-Atlantic into the eastern TN Vly will spread SE
later this morning into the afternoon, becoming more widespread
into tonight with BKN/OVC conditions (mainly VFR CIGs). Have
allowed for some LLWS at northern terminals as a SW LLJ
develops over the area. A weakening cold front will approach
the region from the NW later today into tonight. Rain showers
become more widespread along and especially behind the frontal
passage this evening, tapering off into Sat morning. Widespread
MVFR and short-lived IFR CIGs are possible during this same
period Fri night along and just behind the frontal passage. SW
winds 5-10 kt early this morning increases to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) by midday through this
afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming
N overnight behind the cold front.

Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions Saturday through
Monday. A few passing showers are possible over SE terminals
(ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the
region Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the
SE coast. Winds were mainly SW 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to
20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft.

High pressure will slide farther off the SE coast this morning.
Otherwise, a cold front will approach from the west today. SW
winds will be mainly 10-15 kt with gusts to near 20 kt this
morning through this aftn in advance of the front. Winds then
become W then NW then N this evening into Sat morning, with the
frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few
kt below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a
brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 2-9 AM Sat on the bay.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Sat aftn through the rest
of the weekend. Widespread SCAs are likely Mon night into Tue
aftn in the wake of a much stronger cold FROPA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...ERI/TMG


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