Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
863 FNUS71 KAKQ 020849 FWSAKQ Spot Forecast for Plum Creek...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wakefield VA 449 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service at 757-899-5734. .DISCUSSION... Dry and warm weather will prevail today high pressure builds across the region with afternoon min RH values around 40%. A very light SW wind in the morning will become 5 to 10 mph during the afternoon. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday, with rain chances increasing Saturday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 87. Min humidity........39 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west 12 to 14 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (54700 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................9 early in the morning increasing to 73 in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........27 15 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............69 74 78 82 84 86 86 86 85 RH..............76 66 58 49 43 39 39 39 40 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 20 FT wind gust.8 11 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.3 Transp wind dir.S SW SW SW W W W W W Transp wind spd.7 8 9 10 10 12 13 13 14 LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............9 17 25 40 55 70 72 73 69 Haines index....3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 11 17 28 40 54 55 54 50 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 60. Max humidity........81 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph decreasing to 1 to 3 mph overnight, then shifting to the northwest around 2 mph after 3 am shifting to the northeast after 3 am. Smoke dispersal.....Good (31800 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (300 knot-ft) late in the night. LVORI...............3. ADI.................45 early in the evening decreasing to 0 late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........5 5 4 7 10 13 17 21 25 29 34 38 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............83 79 75 72 69 68 67 66 65 64 62 61 RH..............43 50 58 64 70 73 75 75 78 78 81 81 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW S S E NE E E E 20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 20 FT wind gust.14 12 11 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 8 11 Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW SW SW SW W W NW N NE Transp wind spd.13 10 8 7 6 5 3 1 1 2 5 7 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 ADI.............45 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 15 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........55 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (41200 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 56 in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........37 35 38 42 46 49 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............61 63 67 68 69 66 RH..............78 65 59 59 55 58 20 ft wind......E 7 E 9 E 10 E 11 E 12 E 12 20 ft wind gust.13 15 18 19 20 20 Mix hgt (ft)....700 1200 1800 2200 2200 2000 Transport wind..E 10 E 17 E 17 E 18 E 21 E 20 LVORI...........4 2 1 1 1 1 ADI.............7 27 39 47 56 49 Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 18 27 34 41 35 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR POOR $$ Forecaster...BUTNER Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413004.0/AKQ .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org