Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 072344
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
644 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers from tonight into Monday morning.

- A small chance to see the solar eclipse south of Interstate
  90.

- More rains chances from Monday night into Tuesday and from
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Much warmer for the Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

Tonight into Monday morning - More showers

The 500 mb closed low will move slowly northeast and north from the
Central Plains into the Minnesota and the Dakotas. At the same time,
a shortwave trough will be rounding the southeast and east periphery
of this low. This will bring additional showers to the forecast
area. The 07.12z HREF still shows some surface-based CAPE up to
100 J/kg in northeast Iowa and parts of southeast Minnesota, so
cannot rule out an isolated storm this evening. The CAMS are in
good agreement that by Monday morning that the showers will be
primarily north of Interstate 90.

Monday Afternoon - Still a small chance to see the solar eclipse
south of Interstate 90

Still seeing the potential for maybe some breaks in the clouds
mainly south of Interstate 90. Most of the clouds will be between
850 and 800 mb, so there might be a chance that these clouds could
become open cellular with time. Will this be during the eclipse
is uncertain. In addition, the HRRR tries to generate some
scattered showers during the eclipse. Meanwhile, the remainder
of the CAMS keep the area dry.

The 07.12z HREF total cloud cover has the mean between 90 and
100 percent north of Interstate 90. In addition, there is rather
tight difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, so
confidence is rather high that it will likely remain cloudy in
these areas. The mean total cloudiness along the Interstate 90
corridor are running from 66% at Mauston, WI to 73% at La
Crosse, WI, and 83% at Rochester, MN. The difference between the
25th and 75th percentiles are more widespread east of La Crosse
with up to a 90% difference over by Mauston, WI and just a 10%
difference in Rochester. Further south across northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin, the mean clouds range from 60 to 80%. This
is also where the greatest uncertainty occurs with rather large
differences between the 25th and 75th percentiles, so the
confidence for any clearing remains very low.

If you want to see the eclipse, the highest chances near us is from
Omaha, NE to the Quad Cities IA/IL into southwest Lower Michigan and
northern Indiana. These areas have a mean total cloud of up to 10%
and the 10th to 90th percentile (80% of the HREF ensemble) are
primarily within 20% of each other, so there is rather high
confidence that it will be mostly sunny to sunny in these areas.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 50s to lower
60s.

Monday Night into Tuesday - More rain chances

Another shortwave trough will move through the region. Like the past
couple of days, the highest chance of rain 20-40% will be along and
north of the Interstate 90 corridor. With many of the deterministic
and CAMS trending drier on Tuesday, we might end up with a drier day
on Tuesday.

High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 50s to lower
60s.

Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Night - Additional rain
chances. Highest chances (40-60%) on Thursday.

A northern stream 500 mb trough will be moving east through the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Unlike the past couple of days, this
trough looks to be much deeper as a result it looks like most of the
area will see a chance of showers. The 07.13z NBM probabilities of a
0.01 inches or greater is up to 20% on Wednesday afternoon and
anywhere from 50 to 70% for Thursday. If the trend continues for
Thursday, we will likely have to raise the precipitation chances by
20 to 40% than current values.

High temperatures will be in the 60s on Wednesday and with more
clouds expected on Thursday high temperatures will be in the mid-
and upper 50s.

Friday through Sunday - Much warmer for the weekend

An upper level ridge will build across most of the central US. This
will result in dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures. High
temperatures will range from the mid-50s to lower 60s on Friday and
be in the 60s and 70s for the weekend. The highest probabilities
(50 to 60%) for 70s will be along and south of Interstate 90.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

Current radar shows a band of showers and thunderstorms in
northeast Iowa moving into southeastern Minnesota. This band
will continue moving off to the northeast. As a result
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
into the early morning hours on Monday. There will continue to
be a chance (20 to 40%) of rain showers in the northern portions
of the area during the day Monday before the next band of
precipitation moves through Monday evening.

Gusty east to southeast winds will continue through the evening
before gradually decreasing into the overnight hours. The
center of a low pressure system will move overhead overnight
causing winds across the forecast area to be from different
directions depending on the track this low takes. Wind speeds
will be light overnight and by late Monday morning, most
locations should see southwest winds.

The last impact piece of the TAF period will be the CIGS. Most
locations currently have MVFR/IFR CIGs and these conditions will
likely continue through the morning on Monday, especially for
areas north of I-90. Areas south of I-90 are more uncertain
regarding MVFR or VFR CIGs. For most locations there is a 40 to
60% chance of MVFR CIGS during the day Monday, with the greatest
chance in the morning/early afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Cecava


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