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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230506
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N74W
to central Florida near 27N80W. Gale-force northerly winds N of
29N and W of the front to 77W will diminish late tonight. Large
northerly swell up to 14 ft W of the front will gradually decay
Tue and Tue night.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: An occluded front is just N of
our area, its associated 1007 mb low pressure is centered near
31N33.5W. The cold front associated with this occluded front
enters our water at 31N28W and extends SW to 18N39.5W. Recent
scatterometer data depicted NW to N near gale-force to gale
force winds over the southwestern and western quadrant of the
low. Seas will build to 14 in a mixed swell. Winds will decrease
below gale Tue morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
and extends southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W
to 01S30W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04S to 03N between 24W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N88W, continuing
as a stationary front to Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh to
NE winds prevail behind the front, reaching strong speeds over
the far SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are found E of the
front and over the northern Gulf. Along the front, seas are in
the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Keys to
23N88W, continuing as a stationary front to Veracruz, Mexico.
Fresh to strong NW winds are offshore Veracruz and W of the
Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds
elsewhere behind the front. Seas of 4 to 7 ft, up to 8 ft near
Veracruz, will gradually subside through Tue. The majority of
the front will push SE of the basin later tonight with the
western portion dissipating. High pressure will dominate in the
wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will increase to fresh
to strong across most of the basin by the end of the week into
the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, which will also
build seas reaching 7 to 11 ft basinwide Sat night. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula in the
evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the area supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean. A
surface trough enters the basin from western Puerto Rico to
15N67.5W. Rainfall totals through this afternoon over Puerto
Rico in association to this trough were between 2 to 4 inches.

For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the area will
sustain moderate to locally fresh trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of Colombia
and near the Gulf of Venezuela midweek. Mainly gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to
fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, S of
Hispaniola, and offshore central Honduras at times, fresh to
strong Wed night and again Sat night. A decaying cold front may
reach into the Caribbean N of 19N later tonight, possibly
bringing a brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate
seas will prevail across the basin, building to 7 to 10 ft N of
18N Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale
conditions across the north-west and north-central waters.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to the Florida Keys near
25N80W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is observed within
75 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. N gale force winds are
found N of 29N and W of the front to 77W, with seas of 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are found ahead of the front. A
weak ridge extends SW from 1026 mb high pressure centered near
34N47W to the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle winds, and seas
of 3-4 ft, are along the ridge axis. A surface trough is
depicted south of 22N64W to south of Puerto Rico. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are depicted along the trough N of
Puerto Rico. Farther east, a cold front extends from a complex
low pressure area near 31N33.5W, SW to near 18N39.5W. Northerly
gale force winds are found N of 30N between 34.5W and 35.5W.
Elsewhere, winds are generally in the gentle to moderate range
with seas in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the western
Atlantic will reach from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas Tue evening
while weakening, then will become a dissipating stationary front
from 31N59W to 21N76W Wed evening, then becoming a remnant
trough there by Thu evening. The trough will linger through the
end of the week, getting reinforced by a cold front which may
dive S of 31N Fri night, reaching from 31N54W to near N Haiti by
Sat evening. Increasing winds and a large area of building seas
will also rapidly push S-SW of 31N across the waters W of the
boundary. Winds may be near gale-force N of 27N and E of 65W as
a parent low forms near 31N this Weekend. The aforementioned
surface trough near Puerto Rico triggered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon with total rainfall accumulation
between 2 to 4 inches. The wet pattern over Puerto Rico will
persist through the week, maintaining elevated potential for
flooding, excessive runoff, and landslides. Please refer to the
National Weather Service San Juan for more details about
possible flood advisories and warnings in the upcoming days.

$$
KRV