Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270929
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
429 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quick update to increase pops across the Turtle Mountains.
Scattered to numerous rain showers are in order across Bottineau
and Rolette counties for the early morning period. An area of
rain showers has held together as it now is crossing the southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba border, and heading towards our
northern border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Main highlight today will be isolated showers and thunderstorms.

The latest water vapor imagery loop details a shortwave near
Garrison, moving southeast with time. This shortwave has
generated isolated showers and thundersTorms overnight. The
shortwave will move into Jamestown by 12z. Farther upstream, a
700mb-500mb shortwave trough was located from Regina to Moose Jaw
Saskatchewan. Regional and Canadian radar shows pockets of showers
over southern Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba heading
southeast. Along and ahead of the mid level shortwave mentioned
above, forecast cape ranges between 300 and 1000 J/kg with 0-6km
shear of 30-40kt. Low and mid level lapse rates are not too
impressive, ranging between 5.5 and 7.5C/Km. While the various
global and high resolution models do produce areas or pockets of
light precipitation today, the gridded forecast expectations will
be isolated showers thunderstorms. Highs today will range from
the upper 60s north to upper 70s southwest.

For tonight, the shortwave trough departs with a dry night to
start, then the low level winds become east to southeast, then
southerly by 12z Tuesday. Increasing moisture advection along
with a couple of mid level shortwaves will lead to thunderstorms
developing across South Dakota. Models hint that some pockets of
precipitation may reach our far southern counties by 12z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The extended period remains in northwest flow aloft through
the period. Several perturbations in the flow aloft will bring
chances for thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday
and again Saturday and Sunday. Early indications from the global
models on instability suggest the best cape will be south of the
region so no clear support for widespread thunderstorms yet.
Additionally the mean precipitable water remains below the
climatological average through the period so atmospheric moisture
will be sparse.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal with highs
from the 70s to the lower 80s mostly. However an approaching h500
trough over the northwest conus will displace a ridge downstream
into the northern plains and may signal a warmer and more active
pattern after sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Mvfr cigs will be the dominate ceiling at KISN/KMOT/KJMS through
until 12z-18z Monday, with tempo ifr cigs at KBIS between 11z-14z.
Thinking is KDIK will remain vfr. After 18z Monday, a vcts has
been carried at the KBIS/KISN/KMOT terminals, which continues
until approximately 00z Tuesday.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



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