Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190854
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
254 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Accumulating snowfall across southwestern and south central North
Dakota highlights the short term forecast.

A trough over the western CONUS continues to dig south as it
propagates east towards the region. An initial upper level
shortwave ejected from the trough was noted on water vapor
satellite imagery. This wave has been producing light snow over
parts of southwestern and south central North Dakota. Expect 1 to
3 inches with 5 inches possible locally in some of these areas.

Another stronger wave will eject later this afternoon and spread
snow further east and north through the day. Accumulating snow
associated with this upper level feature will be maximized over
the southern James River Valley, where 2 to 4 inches can be
expected with totals up 6 inches possible locally. Totals will
drop off quickly to the north, but aerial extent of the snow may
reach all the way up into the Turtle Mountains. Will be issuing
another winter weather advisory for my far south central and the
southern James River Valley with this package.

Finally, breezy winds over the James River Valley tomorrow will
promote the potential for some patchy blowing snow, reducing
visibilities, especially in open country. Colder temperatures
overspread the region Monday night as surface high pressure slides
in. Dangerous wind chills will be possible overnight, especially
across the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Arctic air will be in place on Tuesday as much of the forecast
area will struggle to rise above single digits for highs. Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning will see widespread lows in the
double digits below zero. Dangerous wind chills, as low as 30
below zero, are likely across all of western and central North
Dakota.

Late Tuesday through the end of the work week, the upper level
trough weakens and merges with the already established Hudson Bay
Low, keeping cyclonic flow aloft over North Dakota. This flow
pattern will keep the forecast area generally in a below average
temperature regime with some slight chances of light snow off and
on throughout the week. A slight warmup is possible by the end of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Snow falling over southwest North Dakota will spread south central
through the overnight hours. Lower ceilings will also spread north
and east, bringing widespread MFVR/IFR conditions over western and
central North Dakota by Monday afternoon. Snow chances will also
increase over KDIK/KBIS/KJMS through Monday afternoon, bringing
periods of IFR and possibly LIFR visibilities to these stations
under any heavier snow bands. Breezy northerly winds will be
likely over the southern James River Valley through Monday
afternoon.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NDZ040-
043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH



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