Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 310248
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS STILL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM TODAY CONTINUES TO BE FIRE WEATHER TOMORROW.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. A DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER LAKE WINNIPEG INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN MONTANA WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
ROCKIES. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
UPPER RIDGE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

ON TUESDAY...RIDGE WORKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LOW PASSES
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE
AREA (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFFILIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE CONTINUE THE
APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING...SLIDING INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTY. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EVENING THUNDER WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE. FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED A VARIETY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOCATION OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED POSSIBLY BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...SCHECK
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






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