Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 281751
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Blended to observed trends through 17 UTC, with the main change to
increase cloud cover across portions of the James River Valley
into the early afternoon where stratus has been slow to erodebeneath
a deep inversion.

UPDATE Issued at 849 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Quick update to blend to observed trends through 13 UTC. Fog
across the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley will continue
to burn off this morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Hourly weather elements were blended to latest observations.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Focus in the short term is on low temperatures and cloud cover in
the James river valley and Turtle mountains areas early this
morning.

Latest satellite shows low clouds just east of our county warning
area over Valley City up to Devils Lake. Initial short range
models were bringing cloud cover into the James river valley and
Turtle mountains a bit earlier and where low clouds have not
developed temperatures have dropped below the consensus models
forecast.

With that said do expect the low cloud deck stretching from Devils
Lake area through Dickey county to slowly progress east and expand
a bit through the early morning hours. This should bring
temperatures back into the 40s in those colder spots and stop any
possible frost development in most areas. Temperature gradients
as of 08 UTC differ by as much as 9 degrees between Jamestown and
Valley City where the cloud deck is squarely over.

Otherwise a quiet and pleasant day. Skies should clear by
afternoon and highs will range from around 60 east to around 70
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A large upper level ridge will dominate North Dakota`s weather
pattern into the weekend.

The 00 UTC model guidance continues to show a weak disturbance
moving in late Thursday into Friday. While Cape values are weak
there will be a chance for a thunderstorm or two embedded in the
showers.

A western CONUS trough will begin to impact North Dakota weather
starting Sunday as the large upper level ridge breaks down and
moves east. The 00 UTC ECMWF and GFS both show chances for for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday through early next week. As of
the latest runs the GFS is the most progressive of the two with a
closed low moving through North Dakota Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

MVFR stratus across the Devils Lake basin and the James River
Valley impacting KJMS will slowly lift and scatter through the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the 18 UTC
TAF cycle.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...AYD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.