Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202125
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for
a mix of light rain, freezing rain or sleet tonight across the
northwest and north central.

Currently, a strong mid/upper level shortwave trough extended from
northern Alberta southeastward across Saskatchewan, to the Turtle
Mountains and James Valley. The associated surface trough was just
east of the Red River Valley. The rainfall associated with this
system was over the eastern quarter of the state, with mostly sunny
skies across western ND. Temperatures ranged from the upper 50s in
the snow-free areas of the southwest to the 30s in the Turtle
Mountains and James Valley.

Tonight a weaker shortwave in the zonal flow aloft is forecast to
move eastward along the International Border, and will bring a
chance of light precipitation across northwestern and north central
ND. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of light freezing rain, rain, or
possibly sleet. Probabilities are higher along the Canadian border,
but less than a 50% chance over any locale. Lows tonight should
range from the upper 20s along the Canadian border to the mid 30s
across the southwest.

Another mild day Tuesday with highs expected to range from the upper
30s far north to around 60 in the snow-free areas of the southwest.
Another shortwave in the flow aloft will bring a slight chance of
light rain to parts of western ND Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

An active weather pattern will be in place through the long term
period, though not seeing any major storm systems for western and
central ND. Temperatures will trend colder beginning Wednesday.

Broad low pressure across Canada begins the long term with a digging
trough off the west coast and zonal flow across the Northern Plains.
Embedded shortwaves in the flow will bring chances of
light rain or light snow Tuesday night mainly north of I-94, and
chances of rain or snow across all of western and central ND on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Only light snow accumulations are
expected, with less than an inch forecast. Cold air filtering in
from Canada will make for a noticeably colder day Wednesday...with
highs from the lower 30s north to mid 40s in the far southwest.

By Thursday the west coast trough will have deepened and dug farther
south into the 4-corners area, with colder air from Canada
continuing to sag farther south into ND. A storm system develops in
over the southern Plains Thursday and lifts northeast into the upper
Mississippi Valley Friday. Most of the energy and precipitation with
this system is forecast to remain to the south and east of our area,
but the southwest part of ND will see a chance of light snow with
upslope northeasterly flow behind a secondary cold front. We are
looking at highs from the mid 20s Turtle Mountains to the lower 30s
far south...which is very close to average high temperatures for
this time of year.

Continued reinforcing shots of colder air Friday and into the
weekend bring average to slightly below average temperatures to our
area. Look for morning low temperatures Friday through the weekend
from mainly the teens to single digits above zero...with highs
mainly from 20F to 30F. No significant precipitation expected during
this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 711 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Light to moderate rain from KBIS to KJMS will continue until mid
to late morning. This will result in mvfr vsbys at KBIS and KJMS,
as an area of moderate rain works its way through. Lifr/ifr cigs
at KMOT will return to vfr by 17z; and expect a return to vfr
cigs/vsbys at KISN/KDIK between 13z and 16z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS


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