Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS INDICATED BY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SCT -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLD -TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






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