Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 261745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY WITH RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK WILL BE
CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF 52 TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AFTERNOON TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AYD




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