Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 040629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS IN THE BISMARCK AREA. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF THIS WRITING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY
COUNTY...THROUGH HAZEN...TO NEAR HETTINGER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE -SHRA AND VCTS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH



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