Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281342
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
842 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy dense fog in the northwest has cleared. The forecast has
been updated with the latest observations. No major changes.

Seasonable temperatures with light winds will make for a
beautiful day. There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two
in the southwest this afternoon but much of the action should stay
in South Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Areas of dense fog continue across portions of northwest North
Dakota this morning between Stanley and Tioga and into teh Crosby
area. This fog should lift by 9 am CDT. Otherwise skies sill be
mostly sunny today. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
southwest by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Surface high pressure across the eastern Dakotas and western
Minnesota will drift southeast today as lee side low pressure
develops in Montana. Have been monitoring visibilities across
northwest North Dakota this morning and will add some patchy fog
where light winds and temperature-dewpoint spreads are near zero.
Increasing low level moisture and southeast winds with a weak
upslope component will support widely scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon across the southwest. Highs today will be in the 70s
north to the lower 80s southwest.

Tonight an h700 mb weak shortwave will move across the region and
will support some convection across southwest into south central
North Dakota, with increasing low level southerly flow. Moisture
remains pretty meager across the north so expect the convection
in Canada to remain north of the border where better dynamics are
found.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Main theme in the long term is a trend toward more unsettled weather
as chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over the weekend
into the fourth of July.

For Wednesday and Thursday, northwest flow is dominant with an upper
low anchored over northern Ontario. Embedded within the northwest
flow is a mid level shortwave trough which is forecast to produce
showers and thunderstorms mainly in south central ND Wednesday,
including the James river valley area. Not expecting any severe
weather at this time as that should be confined across South Dakota
and Nebraska.

A surface cold front is forecast to shift north to south Wednesday
night with another chance for showers thunderstorms. Thursday the
forecast area will be under cold air advection and drying conditions
via a northeast to northerly wind through the entire column. The
NAEFS, North American Ensemble Forecast System, pegs very low
precipitable water values across central ND Thursday into Friday,
around 0.50 inches, which is near the 10th percentile when compared
to climatological values of 0.96 this time of year. Highs Wednesday
ahead of the cold front will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and
in the low to mid 70s Thursday.

For Thursday night through Monday, a gradual increase in low level
moisture will combine with a more progressive pattern and several
shortwaves migrating through enhancing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms. A low level southerly jet becomes established
Thursday night far west, then overspreads all of western and central
ND Friday through Saturday night. With increasing low level moisture
advection, approaching shortwaves and greater instability, the end
result will be will for increased coverage and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms. Highest cape and shear resides over the area
Sunday and Monday,which suggests this time period poses the higher
risk for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy fog is possible this morning between KISN-KMOT with
visibilities as low as 3 miles through 14z. Otherwise vfr
conditions expected through the forecast period.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA



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