Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 102131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW WANING BY 18Z. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KJMS HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE TREND AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL BE A FOR GRADUAL DETERIORATION FROM VFR TO MVFR.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KISN/KDIK TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS


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