Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 020238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED EVENING
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 03Z. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM



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