Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290554
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MANITOBA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. WINDS EAST OF THE
RIDGE WERE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS...AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WEST OF THE RIDGE.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST SAT PICS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR CROSBY/TIOGA...JUST
EAST OF GLEN ULLIN...TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. TEMPERATURES ARE THE
TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE TEENS IN SOME OF THE CLEAR
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THAT WHEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO RAISE TEMPS THERE OR AT
LEAST KEEP TEMPS FROM CONTINUING TO DROP.

KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES
CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.

AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV






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