Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 141351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A NARROW SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHILE AN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNT
REPORTED IN PARSHALL-MOUNTRAIL COUNTY BY THE PUBLIC. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SNOW RATIOS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 40:1. THE SNOW BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL OMEGA.
THE SNOW SHOULD MELT OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REFINED THE SNOW AREA SOUTH CENTRAL. UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW IN A
NARROW BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR AT KISN/KBIS/KDIK/KMOT THROUGH 15Z. VSBYS
REDUCED 1-3 SM IN LIGHT SNOW. CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KJMS MAINLY 14Z
THROUGH 18Z. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






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