Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPANDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOW. SOME
AREAS SEEING 100% RH THOUGH NO FOG AS YET...BUT SEE OAKES AND VALLEY
CITY REPORTING FOG. EXPECTING DRIER AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S)
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 01 UTC. DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS SMOKE ONCE AGAIN
PROPAGATES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO ADDED A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS/KBIS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE
IMPACTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SMOKE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SEEING ANY
IMPACTS OF SFC VSBY FROM SMOKE AS YET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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