Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
428 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Wind advisory for most of western and portions of central North
Dakota highlight the short term period.

Water vapor loop shows an upper low circulating over southeast
Alberta. This is forecast to shift east today, being located in
southeast Saskatchewan/southwest Manitoba between 21z Saturday and
00Z Sunday. Cyclonic flow and additional moisture wrapping around
on the back side of the low will infiltrate northern ND today.
Cape between 300 and 500 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear between 20kt
and 40kt will yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Severe
weather is not anticipated today.

At the surface, a low pressure in the James River Valley will
ride up along a cold front during the morning, entering southern
Manitoba by early afternoon. Hence isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms still possible from the Turtle Mountains south
into the James River Valley through the morning. For the afternoon
the main threat for thunderstorms will be across the north,
closest to the upper low and steeper low level lapse rates.

A combination of the NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings suggests mixed layer
westerly winds of 30kt to 35kt with gusts to near 45kt at the
top. A high end wind advisory remains valid. Some concern that
showers in the northwest may mix down higher wind gusts at times
this afternoon. West to northwest winds tonight remain gusty,
between 20 and 30 mph, but below advisory criteria.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s northwest to upper 70s
south central. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

On Sunday the h500 upper low will be centered near Lake Winnipeg
moving east. A weak trough from the low extends to the west across
northern North Dakota. This will support widely scattered
thunderstorms across the north Sunday into Sunday night. another
breezy to windy day is expected Sunday especially north central
where the flow around the surface low in Canada will be strongest.
Thats all the precipitation until wednesday when a shortwave tops
the h500 ridge and slides southeast into the northern plains
bringing scattered thunderstorms to the region, mainly southwest
and south central where better shear and instability set up.
Following Wednesday, a prolonger period of northwest flow sets ups
through Saturday. With weak impulses moving into teh northern
plains will see scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of
the period. temperatures will be seasonal with highs in teh 70s
to lower 80s and lows in the 50s .


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Hazards to aviation today include strong winds across the west and
central. At 4 am CDT a cold front extended across east central
North Dakota and was moving east. High pressure from Montana was
building into western North Dakota. VFR conditions are expected
at all TAF sites. Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30ts are
expected across west and central north dakota after sunrise
saturday with winds gusting as high as 40kts southwest.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>021-031>034-042-045.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NDZ040-041-043-044.



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