Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV







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