Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






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