Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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821
FXUS63 KBIS 192015
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPIATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT AREAS OF
WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPIATION
SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA



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