Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290225
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
925 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Forecast trending well will only update current conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A region of high pressure continues to bring quiet and clear
weather across the region this Wednesday evening. Current
forecast looks good so will only update current conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Clear skies for Northern Lights viewing tonight highlights the
short term forecast.

An upper level ridge across the Northern Plains will remain in
place tonight into Thursday. As a result, clear skies are
forecast for the period for potential viewing of the Northern
Lights tonight given the increased solar wind speed from a coronal
hole on the sun.

Under the upper level ridge, slightly above normal temperatures
are expected on Thursday. Given good agreement, utilized a blend
of the 12 UTC global and the rapidly updating high resolution
iterations through 17 UTC for the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Increasing precipitation chances Sunday into early next week
highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on a digging upper level
trough across the western CONUS Sunday into Monday with a
upper level low potentially propagating out onto the Northern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. The global models have been
consistent with this pattern setting up, favoring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Surface high pressure that extends from the Prairie Provinces of
Canada across the eastern Dakotas will maintain VFR flying
conditions across the northern plains for the 00Z TAFs. Several
short term models develop fog across the James river valley around
sunrise Thursday morning. Included 3SM BR for KJMS 11-14Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
AVIATION...WAA


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