Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







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