Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160301
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds will continue tonight and through
  Saturday, with strong winds during the day Saturday in central
  North Dakota.

- A cooling trend will bring seasonable temperatures through
  Sunday. A quick warm up is then anticipated on Monday, before
  a more significant cooling trend begins, with below normal
  temperatures expected by the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE.
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

We allowed the Wind Advisory to expire as planned, although
winds will stay breezy through the night. There was some thought
regarding if another advisory will be needed tonight/tomorrow,
as the pressure gradient remains tight and lapse rates are
steep. However, we decided to hold off for now, as forecast
soundings are only showing around 30-35 knots at the top of the
mixed layer, which is lower than what soundings were advertising
for today. Will let the next shift re-evaluate.

We are keeping an eye on some areas of radar reflectivity
upstream in southern Manitoba, as the SPC mesoanalysis page
highlights some potential for snow squalls...most likely
scenario is this activity stays east of the forecast area but
can`t completely rule out reaching the Turtle Mountains area and
the eastern James River Valley. Temperatures might not be quite
cold enough at that point to be snow, so it could end up as rain
showers anyways.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Quick update for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning, as
planned. Minimum relative humidity will continue increasing
through the evening.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Strong winds continue this evening as a clipper system moves
through, bringing a cold front with it that is currently
oriented west-east across the central part of North Dakota. The Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for our southern counties, and
expecting this to be expired on time as relative humidity is
beginning to increase. The Wind Advisory for portions of
central North Dakota remains in effect as well, with winds
expected to diminish slightly over the next few hours, although
we are anticipating that it will stay breezy overnight behind
the front. No big changes with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

An upper level low continues to move across central Manitoba
bringing forth a cold front. A tight surface pressure gradient
across the state has lead to advisory level winds across the
east. Therefore, the Wind Advisory will remain in effect until
this evening. The cold front is forecast to move through the
state this evening ushering in a wind shift tonight. Pressure
rises behind the front will keep winds elevated resulting in
breezy overnight winds as advisory level winds are forecast to
diminish this evening.

High temperatures have warmed across the state resulting in
upper 40s north to lower 50s. Dry and windy conditions has
lead to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning across the southern
half of the state this afternoon, see the fire weather
discussion for more information.

Colder air will seep into the region tonight resulting in cooler
temperatures tomorrow. Highs will range from the lower 30s north
to mid 40s southwest. Breezy winds will continue tomorrow
afternoon as gradient winds continue. This weekend temperatures
are forecast to remain cooler as the colder air mass moves
overhead with Sunday being the coldest day. An upper level ridge
will build out over the west resulting in warmer weather.
Temperatures are forecast to warm in to the mid 60s out west to
the lower 40s in the southeast. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile
has a pretty wide range for high temperatures Monday depending
on the placement of the upper level ridge.

The upper level pattern is forecast to change Tuesday resulting
in the ridge flattening out. An upper level trough will move
through the region by the middle of next week resulting in a
chance for snow Wednesday night. A broad trough could move
through the Plains later next week resulting in an active
pattern by the end of next week. There is still a lot of
unceratianity with this system and the impact it will have
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals to start the TAF period. Strong
winds continue this evening, with a cold front dropping south
that has led to northwesterly winds across northern North
Dakota, while winds are still from the west across the south.
Expect winds to be northwesterly by around 06Z, with winds
staying elevated through the night and through Saturday. Low
stratus will also move in after 06Z, bringing MVFR ceilings to
much of northern and central North Dakota including KMOT and
KJMS. KXWA and KBIS could be impacted but with this update left
them both at VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Jones


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