Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 212112
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIODS OF VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW
STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CIGS...AND BETWEEN 02Z-06Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER
TO ALL SNOW. PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE
FORM OF -FZRA OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z.
PREDOMINATELY VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH





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