Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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744
FXUS63 KBIS 171231
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

High pressure continues to exit the northern plains this morning.
Large range of temperatures this morning between the single
digits above and below zero central and the teens and lower 20s
west. Warm front will move across the forecast area today bringing
much warmer temperatures to the entire forecast area.

Populated latest sensible weather elements and blended to mid-
morning temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Highlights in the short term period include gusty westerly
winds and warmer conditions. The gusty winds will allow for
snow to continuously drift across roadways. This, in conjunction
with melting and refreezing, may possibly result in icy roads and
hazardous travel late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
A Special Weather Statement was issued explaining and highlighting
the potential for hazardous travel. See www.weather.gov/bis for
details on the Special Weather Statement.

Currently, warm advection had begun across the region with
southwesterly surface winds becoming established Tuesday evening and
temperatures steady or rising early this morning. An upper level
ridge was established over the Rockies and western plains with mild
Pacific air replacing the arctic air that had been in place over the
Northern Plains for the past several days. A more progressive upper
level flow has begun, and a shortwave trough behind/west of
the warming Rockies ridge is forecast to emerge over southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan this morning and develop into a tight small
scale closed low as it moves east into southern Manitoba by this
evening, and towards Lake Superior tonight. Southwesterly h925 winds
early this morning will become westerly and increase to 25-35 knots
as the closed low makes its way eastward across south central Canada
today and tonight. We should see westerly surface winds increasing
to 15 to 25 mph across western and central ND. The strongest winds
should be across northern North Dakota, where gusts to 35 mph are
possible this afternoon. Temperatures should climb into the 30s
across our area this afternoon. winds tonight should be maintained
around 10 mph, keeping the lower atmosphere mixed enough so that
temperatures will not drop too far - remaining in the 15F-25F range.
The warm conditions should promote some melting, which will increase
the moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. But think that
fog formation should remain patchy at best with the 10 mph westerly
surface winds expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Thursday:

A shortwave ridge builds again with another intrusion of mild
Pacific air into our area. Another mild January day in store with
highs reaching the low-mid 40s in southwestern North Dakota, and mid
to upper 30s northwest and central ND.

Friday through Monday:

This period will be dominated by a large scale longwave trough over
the eastern Pacific and west coast that broadens/expands into the
northern plains.

Late Thursday night/Friday a northern stream shortwave moving across
central Canada with its associated surface low will swing a cold
front through North Dakota. Smaller scale shortwave impulses
coincident with the surface cold front may bring a small chance of a
wintry mix across northwest into north central counties late
Thursday night and Friday morning. High temperatures should still be
in the 30s Friday and Saturday, and in the 20s and 30s Sunday, as
arctic air remains to the north in Canada.

Another upper level shortwave and associated surface low clipper
approaches our area Monday and moves across the Dakotas Monday
night. This system will bring a chance of light snow to our area
Monday into Tuesday. A gradual cooling trend early next week with
highs Monday in the teens and 20s...cooling to 10 to 20 above on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Periods of LLWS KISN this morning, and KMOT and KDIK tonight with
strong winds above a strong inversion and weak surface winds.
Surface winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph most areas this
afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH



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