Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201103
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
603 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Updated the chances for showers with the HRRR time lag ensemble
and adjusted with knowledge of the current conditions. This
gave slight chance of showers along and south of I94 through
early afternoon. Morning lows may tough the upper 30s in Burke
county. otherwise current forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Today, a cold front will continue to slide east and slowly south
across the region leaving a weak baroclinic zone across southern
North Dakota. This zone will be the focus for widely scattered
showers this morning and afternoon, as well as some showers
tonight. Areas of smoke, reinforced with the airmass behind the
front will again remain across central and southern North Dakota.
Dry conditions remain across the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The extended forecast begins Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with short wave energy currently moving
onshore in the Pacific northwest. This feature will move
southeast into the Northern Plains making viewing the eclipse from
much of North Dakota challenging with mostly cloudy skies in the
offing. Cant say for sure but looks like a better chance for
clouds than clear skies across the south. Parts of the west may
see some clearing by late morning though.

Global models agree the main weather feature impacting North
Dakota will be the development of an h500 ridge across the
northwest into the north central CONUS Tuesday through Thursday.
This will suppress convection and leave the region dry with
normal to slightly below normal temperatures mostly in the 70s
but lower 80s possible west. The next chance for thunderstorms
will be Friday into Saturday as the next upper low nudges the
ridge east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Scattered to broken clouds around 4 thousand agl expected KDIK-
KBIS with scattered morning showers. Handled with VCSH. Otherwise
VFR all TAF sites.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA



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