Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH


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