000
FXUS63 KBIS 180930
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
430 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE 18/07Z RAP MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION
OF THE CURRENT STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ML CAPES AROUND 1500 TO
2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40
KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...LOW
LCL`S...DECENT LOW LEVEL CAPE...AND A NARROW AREA OF FAVORABLE
0-1KM SHEAR SUGGEST THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAVORED FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF AND ISOLATED SHORT TERM FLOODING DUE TO
EXTREME RAINFALL RATES OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AGAIN...SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE
NOT EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS...BUT WILL BE WATCHING SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING. CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A WARMING TREND FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH AND EAST AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED
AT KBIS-KDIK-KISN...AND WILL END BY 15Z FOR KMOT-KJMS. HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE VLIFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING AT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS. WHILE THE
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING...IT MAY LINGER AT KMOT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NH