Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF SCT/BKN LOW CIGS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 CAPTURE THIS AND PUSH IT SOUTH...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE MAP INDICATES
A WEAKENING 3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PER RAP13.
THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH CONTINUING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO METWATCH FOR THIS AND NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE DURATION
WOULD BE BRIEF AND AREAL COVERAGE LIMITED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






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