Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 101237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS TO RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...BLENDED THEREAFTER
TO THE 10 AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING SNOWBAND ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WESTERN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 06Z- 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH LEADS INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MAIN HEADLINE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SNOW. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW WHICH IS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MOHALL TO MINOT...MERCER TO WISHEK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WAS BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT
300MB JET STREAK NOW INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BY 18Z AS THE MAIN VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM
NEAR ESTEVAN INTO GLEN ULLIN AND SNAKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRIOR
TO THAT OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PULL THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY AND
DICKINSON SHOW THERE COULD BE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK...RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE CORE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW...IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE COMING
ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

-SN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS BEGINS THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL WANE AND END BETWEEN 18Z-19Z AT KJMS WITH VFR VSBYS
RETURNING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
KMOT ALREADY IS IN MVFR STATUS...KISN WILL FOLLOW AT 16Z...KBIS AT
19Z...AND KDIK AT 21Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



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