Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE 12-13 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION
CONSENSUS....UTILIZED ITS SOLUTION FOR ALL FIELDS THROUGH 00 UTC
THIS EVENING IN A LOW UNCERTAINTY FORECAST IN THE COLD SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DELAYED THE ENDING TIMES BY A FEW HOURS FOR THE CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENTLY...A STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH A
LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF
RADAR ECHOES IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THUS EXPECT
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THERE SHOULD BE SOME RIDGING
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY GOOD SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...FINALLY DECREASING TOWARDS EVENING.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH
TO THE LOW/MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE/BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
FORECAST TO START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT SOMEWHERE INTO
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE...PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DURING
THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...BROADBRUSHED
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD AND INDICATED THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE
COMMON WITH AREAS OF LIGHT MORNING SNOW FLURRIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






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