Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Weak high pressure remains over the forecast area with a light
southerly flow. Main change this update was to lower sky cover
tonight and delay the onset of precipitation on Thursday until
afternoon. Latest global and most if not all of the mesoscale
models hold off on any precipitation lifting north of the SD
border until Thursday afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 908 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Quiet weather continues with forecast remaining in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Quiet weather continues over the area with only some patches of
clouds moving through.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Surface high pressure over the IA/MN border will move to
the central Great Lakes by Thu afternoon. Short wave off
the southern CA coast will move into eastern SD Thu
afternoon and will spread light snow over the far southeast

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Upper level short wave will continue to move through the
area Thu night over the far southeast zones. Next short
wave is expected to move into the Northern Plains Sat/Sat
night. For now the precipitation is expected to stay
south and east of the forecast area. Periods of low pops
 move through the area Sun and Tue but again too low to
add. Will keep little or no precip for much of the

Relative high amplitude upper air pattern with trough on the
southwest US and upper level ridge in the eastern US. Pattern
becomes more zonal after Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with the
exception of KBIS and KJMS. Ceilings expected to lower to MVFR at
KJMS and KBIS later Thursday afternoon as a quick moving storm
system brushes south central and southeast portions of the
forecast area.




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