Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME ADDITIONAL
TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY COULD
PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z MONDAY THROUGH THEN END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE
SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS


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