000
FXUS63 KBIS 161758
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NO SURPRISES SO FAR FROM THE EVOLVING WEATHER. CUMULUS RAPIDLY
FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD. DROPPED THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED.
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO SOUTH CENTRAL. SO FAR
WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN OPENING UP AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AS
FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGES
THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPED WINDS TO
20 TO 35 MPH. STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN STARTING TO INCH CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID
LOWER SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO DROPPED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON. LATEST 06Z GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM KISN AND KMOT INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO
DEVELOP BEFORE 18 UTC. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER. LATEST 06 UTC NAM KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
BORDER EXCEPT FOR MAYBE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 10Z RAP ALSO KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS IN CANADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOS GUIDANCE...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OF THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AS UPPER LOW CLIPS
NORTHEASTERN ND. PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT BY 06Z.

WITH REGARD TO WINDS TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT DATA LIMIT
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS TO 30 KTS...SO ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED BUT DO NOT SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST FIELDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DIFFERENCES THAT DO CROP UP WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RESULTING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. AT NOON CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE TSRA WILL BE ISOLATED...LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF AND JUST MENTIONED VCSH. CLOUDS FROM REGINA TO ESTEVAN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY SHOWING UP BELOW 2000 AGL...SO ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS TO KMOT BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
FROM KMOT-KJMS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR FROM KISN- KDIK- KBIS.;

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA