Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010554
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-18KTS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK SO NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

EVENING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING MINIMUMS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWERED MIN`S THERE ABOUT 2 TO 3
DEGREES. AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MIXING PICK UP THERE SHOULD BE
A LIMITING FACTOR IN TEMPERATURE. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA. THE COMBINATION WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES IN
THE SHORT TERM TODAY. CURRENTLY...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 6 PM MOUNTAIN TIME.

TONIGHT...TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WINDS DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. SHOULD BE A BREEZE CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING TEENS AND LOWER
20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IT IS TOO DRY AND NOT VERIFYING
DEWPOINTS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HEDGE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS LOW AS MOS. PROBABLY A MIX WITH
PROTECTED AREAS DROPPING OFF MUCH LOWER THAN ELEVATED AREAS LIKE
MINOT AND DICKINSON...WHICH KEEP THE WIND.

SOME CONCERN WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE WEST
BUT WITH A MORE UNIFORM WIND FIELD AND NOT AS STRONG OF AN
INVERSION WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING IN A STRATUS LAYER.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO
MID 50S WEST...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
ARE LIKELY TO MAKE A RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) TRENDS CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARD A DRY SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CHANGES FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS MONTANA WILL COMBINE FOR A BREEZY DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 06Z FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH






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