Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 290840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.

FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.