Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270545
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Inherited forecast mainly on track. Updated POPS based on latest
high res models, which seem to have a pretty decent grasp on
current radar imagery.

As stated earlier, line of showers and thunderstorms along a weak
instability axis west into north central will move east ahead of
an upper level trough. Models also keying in on development over
my southeast now through 10Z. Do not expect anything severe
tonight with very limited wind shear and low MUCAPE.


UPDATE Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

After several iterations of the HRRR am now focused on the line
of showers and isolated thunderstorms over west central North
Dakota and the general move of the line east. Believe they will
develop southward a bit as well as translate east. However the
HRRR also tends to significantly weaken the line much more than
earlier runs later tonight. Trended the pops up early then down
later with these ideas.

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

With marginal instability and shear available the convective
trends are in a decline across central North Dakota with scattered
popcorn showers ongoing northwest. Latest HRRR follows this trend
as well. Will trend the pops down across the central this
evening. Late tonight several runs of the HRRR develop a line of
showers and thunderstorms across the southwest and moves them east
to south central North Dakota by sunrise. Will refine the pops to
follow this trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A cold front, currently across far western North Dakota, will
continue to slide eastward through this afternoon and evening.
Ahead of the front skies have cleared and a line of thunderstorms
have developed along an axis of instability (500-1000 J/Kg).
Shear is limited and instability isn`t overly impressive, so
severe storms or organized cells aren`t anticipated at this time.
As instability decreases with sunset, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to decrease. Southern North Dakota
appears most likely to see showers and thunderstorms overnight as
the main surface low is located over northern South Dakota.

Showers and thunderstorm chances remain across portions of the
James Valley tomorrow as the low lifts northeastward across
the eastern Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will highlight the long
term.

Warm air advection and the presence of a surface trough will boost
temperatures Sunday into the upper 80s and 90s.

Westerly flow aloft and the development of an upper level ridge
will keep most of the Northern Plains warm and dry through next
week. Several waves may ride over the ridge and act to deamplify
the flow by mid/late week. This could once again bring chances of
precipitation back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A trough of low pressure extended from a surface low over the
Sask/Man border southwestward to near Stanley to near
Bowman. This trough is forecast to move east across ND
early this morning, reaching central ND by sunrise, and moving east
into the Red River Valley by around 18z. This trough will be the
focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions
expected at KISN/KMOT/KDIK. However some MVFR cigs possible at KBIS
and KJMS. Decreasing clouds from west to east following the passage
of the trough.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



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