000
FXUS63 KBIS 161143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN STARTING TO INCH CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID
LOWER SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO DROPPED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON. LATEST 06Z GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM KISN AND KMOT INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO
DEVELOP BEFORE 18 UTC. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER. LATEST 06 UTC NAM KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
BORDER EXCEPT FOR MAYBE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 10Z RAP ALSO KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS IN CANADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOS GUIDANCE...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OF THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AS UPPER LOW CLIPS
NORTHEASTERN ND. PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT BY 06Z.

WITH REGARD TO WINDS TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT DATA LIMIT
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS TO 30 KTS...SO ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED BUT DO NOT SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST FIELDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DIFFERENCES THAT DO CROP UP WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RESULTING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THINK MVFR
CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW VFR BY THE
TIME THEY DROP INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED...
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST 20G30 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS 15-18Z SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON CU REGENERATE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH SO INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KMOT AND KISN. MAY
GET NEAR MVFR CIGS AT NORTH TERMINALS AS WELL SUNDAY 17-23Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS