Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
432 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 432 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Quiet and mild weather will continue through the night as a surface
warm front continues to loiter in north central/northeast areas of
ND. Southwesterly surface winds will also assist in advecting warm
air into western and central ND, keeping overnight lows above

Monday, mild conditions will continue and northwest winds will
become strong as a clipper scoots east across southern Canada. Winds
will increase through the morning and gradually taper off from west-
to-east through Tuesday. The strongest winds are expected overnight
Monday in north central areas. 12Z BUFKIT soundings are indicating
peak winds at the top of the mixed layer around 50kts. Momentum
transfer is likely as strong cold air advection and steep low-
level lapse rates of around 7.5C/Km accompany this system. A Wind
Advisory may be needed. Precipitation with this system is favored
by the 12Z model suite to stay north and east of the CWA.
Although the GFS is placing light QPE over the north central. A
few flakes early Tuesday morning, on the back side of the clipper,
wouldn`t be surprising. Tuesday, high pressure slides southeast
into ND behind the clipper. Cold Arctic air will tag along
resulting in below average temperatures through Tuesday. Very cold
conditions are expected early Tuesday morning with wind chill
values across the north round -15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 432 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Holiday travel impacts are possible Wednesday as confidence
increases for a wintry mix of precipitation across northwest and
central ND.

Ensemble and deterministic models are providing good agreement on
ridging building into the Plains Wednesday. At the surface, low
pressure will advance across the area bringing chances for
precipitation. A wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain
will be possible as a baroclinic zone over ND creates a northeast-to-
southwest temperature gradient. Early Wednesday morning a period of
freezing rain or sleet is possible in northwest areas. Chances for
freezing precipitation will shift east through the morning and
afternoon. The likelihood of slick roads Wednesday are increasing as
models become more aligned.

Weather for Thanksgiving looks fairly quiet. Thereafter a slightly
unsettled pattern sets up with occasional disturbances moving
through the region resulting in precipitation chances Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions through the 18Z TAFs. Winds will increase late in the
period as a clipper begins an eastward push across the area.




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