Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031739
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER WHERE ACCAS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND 100 CENTRAL UNLESS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO MUCH...BUT
ALREADY 91 IN BISMARCK AT 1230 PM CDT SO THINGS ARE IN TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID NUDGE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER WEST SLIGHTLY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORNING FOG...VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY...REMAINING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND EDGING EASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS MORNING...VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE REPORTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES
AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERY WARM MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
                  YEAR
WILLISTON    102  1978
MINOT        101  1940
DICKINSON     99  2007
BISMARCK     101  1978
JAMESTOWN     99  1922

THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FLOW...THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING A BIT WITH SUNSET...SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

UPPER SYSTEM THEN CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS SYSTEM STARTS TO STACK UP. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER
MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH


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