Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 071335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
835 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MAIN ISSUE WAS RAISING THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WEST THIS
MORNING BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO FAR. ALSO TRENDED
THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND JUST PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT POPS ARE TOO
HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MID LEVEL FAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL MONDAY
WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H250 JET ACROSS MONTANA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA...KEEPING A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ENHANCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND FAST-MOVING JET. QUITE A BIT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...BUT THE SHEAR WANES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STILL MARGINAL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT JET ALOFT IS
MODERATELY STRONG OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY.  KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RATHER HIGH -
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND LOOKING AT CLEARING SKIES.

HIGHS TODAY REACHING MAINLY THE 70S WITH THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. 50S TONIGHT FOR MIN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING THE DAY WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500J/KG WEST TO
2000J/KG CENTRAL BY 00 UTC FRIDAY. MEAGER BULK SHEAR EARLY IN THE
DAY WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SPARK AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...WHILE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES...AND POSSIBLY SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS ON HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP ON FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE STRONG CONVECTION
AGAIN FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

BEFORE THIS...QUITE TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND MID 70S TO MID
80S WEDNESDAY. WE DO WARM INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY..MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING TO A WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE DEPICTING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS EVENTUAL
PATTERN. WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED. THUS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
DEPICTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIGRATE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY. WHILE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE NUMEROUS...AT LEAST LOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF FROM THE PAST HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE DOWNSTREAM SOURIS RIVER VALLEY AND
COMBINED WITH BACKWATER FROM CANADA HAS CAUSED THE LOWER SOURIS
RIVER VALLEY TO RISE INTO MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD. THIS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA AND LAKE DARLING
DAMS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS RIVER
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING ALSO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...JV







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