Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230242
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 941 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Will expire the wind advisory as scheduled at 10PM CDT. Other main
edit was to bump temps up a few overnight with breezy winds and
cloud cover.


UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The forecast remains in good shape for this evening and through
the overnight.

Will leave the wind advisory as is with this product issuance.
Stronger wind gusts continue to develop southward along a mid
level front and leading edge of pressure rises. BUFKIT analysis
continues to suggest sub-warning criteria winds within the mixed
layer though will not be surprised if a few 50KT gusts or 40KT
sustained winds are observed over the next few hours.

Low level clouds along with a few light showers will spread
southward across the area tonight behind the frontal boundary with
increasing boundary layer moisture. Best chance for any rainfall
should stay over the north and west, though any rainfall amounts
will be on the low end if anything at all.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The main focus for tonight and Friday is strong winds. Wind
advisory has been expanded in area and timing.

Currently another cold front had entered northern North Dakota with
a reinforcement of cold advection behind it. Stations across
northern North Dakota were reporting sustained northwest winds of
over 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. The wind advisory that is
currently in effect is valid. The strong winds are expected to
continue to spread south this afternoon. Some stations in the Turtle
Mountain area and also in the far northwest - west of Crosby - have
reached high wind warning criteria with gusts to 58 mph or better.

The main concern for tonight is how far south the wind advisory
criteria winds will spread, and how long will those sustained winds
of at least 30 mph and/or gusts to at least 40 mph will persist.
3-hour pressure rises of 2-3 mb are expected across the north this
afternoon, with 2-3 mb pressure rises expanding across all of
central ND and 3-5 mb rises across western ND this evening. Mixing
should continue this evening, finally tapering off by late evening
when the surface layer decouples from the mid layers of the
atmosphere. After collaboration with surrounding offices, have
decided to expand the wind advisory south a tier or two of counties,
not reaching the SD border, and expanded in time until 10 pm cdt.
This is when forecast soundings depict boundary layer decoupling.
Also, forecast soundings for sites along the ND/SD border indicate
strong winds only briefly reaching wind advisory criteria. The high
wind warning winds in the far north are thought to be more isolated
in nature. However, should the higher 3-hour pressure rises forecast
for this evening become realized at the surface over a wider area,
we may need to consider issuing a high wind warning.

Gusty northwest winds should continue Friday with continued cold
advection, but pressure rises are not an issue and winds aloft
decrease. Still, went on the high side of guidance for winds giving
us 20 to 30 mph sustained winds Friday with gusts to 35 mph at times.

Short term high res models indicate some scattered rain showers
across the north this afternoon and evening with increasing low and
mid level clouds and a potent upper level shortwave impulse.

The cold advection will yield lows tonight in the 40s north and
west, with lower 50s in the James Valley. Highs Friday should reach
only into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Much cooler weather is still expected Saturday, with a warming trend
beginning Sunday. We should return to a more active and progressive
pattern next with with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday through Thursday.

Friday through Sunday North Dakota will be under the influence of a
large/broad Hudson Bay low, with a series of upper level shortwaves
and attendant surface cold fronts, bringing mostly dry, breezy and
cooler conditions through the weekend. Highs will likely struggle to
get out of the 60s and overnight lows will be in the 40s this
weekend.

A western upper level ridge begins to expand eastward across the
Rockies into the western plains Sunday/Monday as the Hudson Bay low
lifts northeastward. This will bring a gradual warming trend early
next week. A more progressive pattern takes shape, with a shortwave
breaking down the western ridge and approaching the northern plains
Tuesday, continuing to deepen as it emerges into the plains on
Wednesday/Thursday. High temperatures Monday 75 to 85 with highs in
the 80s Tuesday are forecast. Best chances of precipitation are
Wednesday and Thursday as the upper low reaches the Dakotas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

MVFR cigs will develop from north to south tonight behind a cold
front. MVFR cigs to affect KMOT and KISN by around 00Z/02Z, and
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS by around 03z/06Z. Low clouds will then scatter out
Friday morning 13-15Z. Strong northwest winds will persist
through the 00Z forecast period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>035-040>042.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH


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