Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE ADDED HAZE TO ALL ZONES AND EXPANDED THE AREAS OF SMOKE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE LOW POPS EASTERN FORECAST AREA AS ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE FORECAST BORDER
EDGE AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GRAND FORKS FORECAST AREA. FELT THE
WIDESPREAD 20 POPS WERE JUST TOO MUCH WHEN IN REALITY VERY FEW
PLACES WILL GET RAIN THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HAVE PULLED OUT ALL POPS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED AS BOUNDARY MOVES IN. CONCERNS OVER THAT AREA NOW SHIFT
TOWARDS SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES BURNING OUT WEST. VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED SOME TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS FOR FAR WESTERN ND THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE SPREAD IT TOWARDS CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING LATE
TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER
THAT REGION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NARROW CU FIELD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH THIS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FOR NOW...BUT IF NOTHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WILL BE REMOVING THEM. WILL BE KEEPING POPS FOR THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN LATER TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A NARROW OPPORTUNITY FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY.

FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES THIS AFTERNOON BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND ENHANCED THROUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA...INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY CUMULUS
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WEST HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED. WARMER AIR
WITH UPPER 80S CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
EVENING PER NAM KDIK SOUNDING. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE H85MB SOUTHERLY WIND
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AFTER 06Z. ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 900MB PER KJMS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A H7 SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN -2C AND
-4C IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WITH MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...AND UPPER 80S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY...WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORMING JUST ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY 12 UTC MODELS ARE PLACING A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. WITH THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AMPLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE THREAT IS THE GREATEST...WITH
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL AND SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE ONLY REAL DETERRENT
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS
ALSO LESSENED THE CHANCES OF REACHING EXTREME HEAT INDICES IN THE
100S.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...12 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WPC RAINFALL
ESTIMATES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGING FROM AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TO OVER 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THE CHANCES AT A
PARTICULAR TAF SITE...KJMS...IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE. IT WILL BE
HAZY WITH SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JPM



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