Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR BOTTINEAU/MINOT TO NEAR
BEULAH/MANDAN TO NEAR HETTINGER.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...SETTING
UP AROUND DEVILS LAKE/BISMARCK THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDING FROM
PEMBINA TO NEAR JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY -
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO H850...AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. GOOD RISING MOTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP WITH CLOUD FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING ENERGY
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES REACHES WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...ENHANCING THE LOWER LEVEL LIFT NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND NAM MODEL DEPICTS ELEVATED CAPE. THUS ADDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 45-50 RANGE NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT AND 50 TO 55
SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ALOFT ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT AN UNSETTLED UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRYING POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
NORTH WINDS AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE TO SLOWLY TO
KBIS AROUND 18Z AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KDVL TO KBIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AFT 06Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV



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