Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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862 FXUS63 KBIS 240257 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 957 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, with widespread highs in the 70s likely on Thursday. Breezy southwest and south central - A pattern shift begins Thursday and continues through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible (50-70%) Thursday afternoon through Friday, with the highest probabilities across southern half of the state. && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Little needing updating this evening. Mainly clear skies will remain through the night, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Warming conditions with a breezy south wind look to be found on Wednesday. High temperatures today were perhaps only slightly warmer than forecast. Considered raising temperatures for Wednesday, although increase cloud cover on Wednesday is of concern. Will maintain current forecast for now. Overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Little needing updating at this point. A few clouds remain in the north, with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. North winds will become light and variable tonight, eventually becoming east southeast by Wednesday morning. Overall the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 A surface low continues to push into the Great Lakes region while surface pressure moves in from eastern Montana. Daytime heating has mixed stronger winds aloft down to the surface, thus resulting in the breezy to windy conditions across central and eastern North Dakota. Winds are finally beginning to decrease across the western half of the state as surface high pressure moves in from the west. Clear skies and subtle ridging across the Northern Rockies has lead to warmer conditions across the state. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon while low temperatures are forecast to remain near or slightly above freezing. Weak ridging will build over the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday leading to warmer weather. Temperatures Wednesday are forecast to warm into the lower 60s to lower 70s out west. A weak short wave will move through the region late Wednesday afternoon leading to increased cloud cover during the day. The aforementioned short wave could produce virga as there will be a very dry level near the surface. A surface low off to the west and surface high pressure off the east will usher in a north south pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions across the state. There is a possibility of near critical fire weather conditions across the northwest tomorrow afternoon as breezy southerly winds could overlap with 20 to 25 percent minimum relative humidity. Temperatures will continue to trend upward in the 70s Thursday as the ridge passes overhead. Windy return flow will increase humidity across the state as warm moist air is advected into the region. This will result in increase instability especially across the southwest. A shortwave trough is going to move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Thursday resulting in increased chances for precipitation by the evening hours. Increased instability ranging from 500-1000 j/kg and lapse rates around 7 C/km will allow thunderstorm development as the trough pivots northward. CSU Machine Learning Program does have a low probability for large hail. Shear looks rather lack luster with 0-500 mb shear around 20 kts. Broad troughing across western and central CONUS will dominate the pattern this weekend. An upper level low is forecast to pass over eastern North Dakota bringing in precipitation chances Thursday evening through Sunday. The greatest chances for rain is Friday into Saturday as the southeastern half of the state is favored for precipitation while the northwest could miss out entirely. Portions of south central and southeastern North Dakota have around a 60-80 percent chance for 0.25 inches of rain through the weekend. After the weekend the pattern could remains fairly active later next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Mainly clear skies will be found through the night. Scattered high clouds with a few mid level cumulus clouds could return during the day on Wednesday. North winds will become light and variable this evening, becoming east south east by Wednesday morning. Some breezy southerly winds may then be found Wednesday afternoon mainly in the west and some central portions. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Anglin