Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE HWO...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
OVER ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS OVER KJMS IN THE 18Z TO
23Z TIME FRAME...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL EVALUATING THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST EXPERIMENTAL RAP/HRRR DATA SHOWS LOWER MIN RH VALUES LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
WINDS. AT THIS POINT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH INCREASED FIRE
DANGER IN SAID AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY COORDINATE
A RED FLAG WARNING OVER MY EASTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
UPDATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...ZH



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