Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 310256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST 01 UTC
HRRR IS SHOWING THIS CONVECTION DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN 04-05 UTC THEN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DICKINSON...AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. PREVIOUS
POPS HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST WV SATELLITE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER DROPPING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY SPOTTY AND BASICALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF A WEYBURN TO BRANDON LINE. THUS ELIMINATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHT...THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE WILLISTON
06Z TAF. BY THIS TIME WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER UNTIL IT REACHES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KMOT AND KBIS. UNTIL THEN NO CHANGES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
KEEP A VCFG AT KBIS AND KJMS 09-13 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH






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