Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180232
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
932 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer Monday and becoming windy. Near critical to
  critical fire weather conditions possible, especially in the
  southwest.

- Accumulating snow chances (~40-80 percent) Wednesday night
  through Thursday. Greatest chances from northwest through
  south central North Dakota including the James River Valley.

- Active weather pattern could remain through the weekend with
  near daily chances (~20-50 percent) for snow.

- Cooldown starting mid-week going through at least the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Surface high pressure has moved over north central North Dakota
helping push low stratus further south. Temperatures continue to
tank across the region espicailly across the north central.
Therefore, low temperatures were reduced to the NBM 25th
percentile to match the current trends. Low temperatures are
forecast now to drop down into the single digits above zero to
the upper teens. No other updates are need at this time as the
forecast remains on track.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low stratus continues to scatter out as surface high pressure
moves into the region. Surface high pressure and clear skies
will drop lows into the lower teens across the central half of
the state tonight. No updates are needed at this time as the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low clouds and a few flurries continue to linger this afternoon.
Surface high pushing out of Canada should diminish cloud cover
and flurry chances as well as lessen the ongoing breezy winds.
Lows tonight will be generally in the teens. Monday then sees a
passing surface low brining some clouds in the morning. Some
hi- res models show isolated showers possible with this passage,
although this should be a mainly dry feature as dry and warm
westerly flow is expected with it. Much warmer temperatures in
the 40s east to 60s west will drop humidity values into the mid
20s to mid 30s across most locations. Meanwhile winds will start
out southwesterly to westerly, increasing to sustained 20 to 30
mph, with a shift towards the northwest in the afternoon and
early evening. These conditions could bring near critical fire
weather conditions generally along and south of Interstate 94,
with perhaps some critical fire weather conditions in
southwestern North Dakota. Confidence for a fire weather
highlight is still low to moderate, with fuel conditions being
the biggest uncertainty. Mild, dry, and perhaps breezy
conditions will then be found through Monday night. The exiting
surface low then brings a backdoor cold front Tuesday. This
could bring cooler temperatures, lingering breezy winds, and
increased cloud cover. Perhaps some flurries or brief light snow
is also possible from this front across the north and east,
although confidence was not high enough to include at this time.
Tuesday night then looks to be cool and dry with diminishing
winds.

An active period of weather could then be found mid week through
the upcoming weekend. This kicks off Wednesday through Thursday
when a low pressure system moves across a frontal boundary
draped from northwest to southeast across the state. The result
could be the return of accumulating snow to the area. How much
snow still depends on the setup of the front and how it
interacts with the passing wave. A more parallel movement could
indicated better banding and higher snow amounts, although the
residence time in North Dakota appears to be somewhat quick.
Currently the NBM showing about 30 to 80% chance for 2 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday, with still less than 20
percent chance for 6 or more inches during this same time
period. Temperatures will remain cool and perhaps slightly below
normal.

Friday through the weekend could then be active at times,
although the differences in progression of the low still makes
predictability in time and snow amounts low to moderate. This
low predictability has cause NBM to place pops in almost each
day, with higher chances Saturday through Sunday. The NBM 48
hour probabilities of over 2 inches during the weekend are
increased and generally 50 to 80%, while the chance for over 6
inches during the same time period have slightly increased to 20
to 50%. Which path the trough takes will have to be monitored as
that will greatly influence snow totals. There is also moderate
to high confidence of continued cold temperatures, although
there still remain a wide spread in the NBM though given the
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Ceilings have improved to VFR across the region. Some lingering
stratus is beginning to scatter out across the central North
Dakota. Wind gusts will diminish around sunset before they
increase out of the west to northwest tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Johnson


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