Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280904
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINSHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT
KISN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH WILL BE CARRIED
AT KMOT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING
AERODROMES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ037-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



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