Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301731
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
TROUGH NOW WORKING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE RAISING WINDS SPEEDS BEHIND THAT FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING
THROUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

REMOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM 18 UTC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
ALL MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CANADIAN MODELS ALSO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
REFLECTIVITY BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BORDER. DID BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN ROLETTE COUNTY AS MINOT
RADAR SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY GET A QUICK
SHOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

CLOUDS INFLUENCED BY A 300MB 100KT JET EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET. ALSO AN AREA OF JET
STREAM CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST
AND BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN
H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL SET UP SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS STATED TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HIGHS SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 60. MODEL FORECAST CAPE SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECT ED THURSDAY...
WITH A LITTLE MORE MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. GENERALLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AT MOST
IS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME WAITING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSULT
WITH FIRE MANAGERS AND GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
GRASSLAND CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






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