Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292037
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY....SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BUT IS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 06-12 UTC SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE FAR WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARED WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW PICKING UP 09-12Z
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BEGINNING JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH LATE
NIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH UPPER RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS MODELS ARE INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE
STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND KJMS TO BEGIN THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A DECREASING NORTH WIND. CLEAR SKIES AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY. A SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KDIK AND KISN...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
SATURDAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-
044>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH


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