Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291741
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND A BIT BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
PRIMARILY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUD COVER RELUCTANT TO
DISSIPATE...AND SHOULD HANG AROUND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLOWLY ERODING. UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THESE CONCERNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOST SHOWERS ARE REMAINING POST FRONTAL AS MAIN UPPER
FORCING CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE
UPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME WITH CURRENT TRENDS. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS MID-DAY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SOME STORMS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY
BECOMING STRONG AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE SHEAR COMPONENT REMAINS MODEST. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH VERY
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG IT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS IT ENTERS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE 07 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE COLD FRONT IN FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW PROGRESSION
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. FOR NOW LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST UP TO 12 UTC THIS MORNING THEN REMOVED
THUNDER CHANCES FROM 12 TO 18 UTC. AFTER 18 UTC THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT.

LATEST 07 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND HAS WENT MOSTLY CALM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT BELIEVE ANY HEADLINE FOR FOG IS
NEEDED AND HAVE OPTED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BEGINNING SATURDAY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT. MODEL CAPES ARE INITIALLY
AROUND 2000 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE EAST AN H850 SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF 50 KTS WILL SUPPLY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE PROGRESSIVE LINE OF STORMS LIKELY WILL
PRODUCE AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA....WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. CAPE AND SHEAR SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS
(LARGE HAIL/WINDS) ARE POSSIBLE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT THE HIGH POPS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
SECTION SATURDAY EVENING AND TRAILED THEM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A PERIOD (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) OF A RELATIVELY
COOL AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME A
TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST US WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THURSDAY WILL PICK UP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LOW CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES PUSHING EAST AND DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. LCL FG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF VIS RESTRICTION STILL
IN QUESTION HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCFG OVER THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






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