Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN UPDATE TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS HIGH...BUT THE GROWING
THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING) SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING...CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MOVEMENT OF STORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED BY 10 AM CDT. STORMS WERE
EAST OF THE WATCH AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE TO
JAMES RIVER BASIN...AND WEST TO THE LOGAN/MCINTOSH COUNTY AREA.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
NOON. NEXT UPDATE SHOULD FOCUS ON EXPECTED STORMS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATE FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WENT LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW/NIL POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEC TINS
OF THE STATE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY AS AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST
US RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE EFFECT ON NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE WITH 70S EAST AND 80S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA/JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






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