Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 072132
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Blizzard conditions this evening highlight the short term
forecast.

Did upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory to a Blizzard Warning
across north central North Dakota through the James River Valley
through 03 UTC this evening. Surface and webcam observations
through 21 UTC are confirmed by multiple reports on social media
of the redevelopment of near zero visibility this afternoon
across the aforementioned areas in blowing snow and lightly
falling snow. The LAMP guidance is the preferred source for winds
as it is the highest and matches observations the best. This
suggests wind gusts in excess of 40kts may continue through 00
UTC, and only decreasing very slowly thereafter. The 12-18 UTC
global suites also support lightly falling snow to continue
through the evening as well. This all equates to a high likelihood
of blizzard conditions continuing into the evening.

No changes made to the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory
or the Wind Chill Advisory at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Dangerous wind chills for much of the period and the potential
for accumulating snow on Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in good agreement on arctic high
pressure across the Northern Plains through Friday night.
Dependent on cloud cover, Thursday night into Friday morning may
be very cold with the arctic high centered over western and
central North Dakota with a large snowpack. Accumulating snow is
favored for Saturday across the area north of a surface low
forecast to propagate across the central plains. The arctic
airmass may rebuild across the area Sunday into next week.
Dangerous wind chills are possible at least during the overnight
and morning hours nearly each day across portions of western and
central North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

MVFR to LIFR conditions in blowing snow are expected across
central North Dakota with MVFR ceilings into tonight. Occasional
MVFR ceilings and visibility in blowing snow are forecast across
western North Dakota into tonight. Northwest winds with gusts of
30-40 kts will continue across much of the area.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.

Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-036-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ035-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

PJA


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