Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Only change needed for early morning update was to adjust cloud
cover up a bit over the southern James River Valley. Otherwise,
going forecast remains in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Current surface analysis places low near central Manitoba, with
high over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places low
over east central Manitoba, with ridge over the west coast.
Multiple short waves noted in the flow rotating around the low.

For today...a few weak showers will be possible this morning
primarily over northwestern portions of the area as a weak short
wave passes through. Greater shower chances will come this
afternoon throughout the area as a stronger wave rotates in.
Modest instability will be in place which could lead to a few
claps of thunder. Breezy conditions expected throughout the area
with moderate pressure gradient in place.

For tonight...precipiation chances will gradually taper from
northwest to southeast in the evening as the wave pushes out of
the area. Thereafter, a quiet evening is inspected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Upper low will meander towards the Manitoba/Ontario border on
Sunday, which will bring additional precipitation chances mainly
to central and eastern portions of the state, along with another
breezy day. Similar conditions expected for Memorial Day as the
low gradually creeps over Lake Superior.

Upper low continues its eastward push on Tuesday as ridge sets up
over the Rockies. Some models are bringing a weak wave through
central and portions of eastern North Dakota, though this appears
to be fast moving. With that said, will still go with a slight
chance of showers in the afternoon.

Ridge then slowly moves east through the end of the work week
before flattening towards the weekend, bringing a subtle warming
trend. Occasional weak waves slide through the areas bringing low
precipitation chances from time to time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
Saturday afternoon through early evening. Main hazard will be brief
gusty winds, possibly around 40 mph. Outside of any showers and
thunderstorms, expect west to northwest winds of 15kt to 30kt. Vfr
cigs/vsbys next 24hr.




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