Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 051521
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.