Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030650
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.

FIRST...SNOW CHANCES WERE REDUCED AND TRIMMED BACK IN BOTH
TEMPORAL AND AREAL COVERAGE. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THEREFORE...REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BOARD. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

SECOND...LOWERED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MAIN PRESSURE BUBBLE IS ALREADY
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THIS PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE
(CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA). GENERALLY WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM AROUND 20
TO NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS IS A
FAIR BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE CANCELED EARLY IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.

AS A RESULT OF THESE CHANGES THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF BLOWING
SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCED. IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
HOWEVER...VISIBILTIES COULD STILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN OPEN AREAS.

OTHERWISE...LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...UPDATED GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON WITH THE FORECAST PRESSURE
SURGE OF 4 MB/3 HR UPSTREAM A BIT IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SO
FAR LITTLE SNOW SEEN ON RADARS SO THIS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
SYSTEM UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WINDS...SO FAR WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY BEGIN AS SCHEDULED AT
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH OUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST IN CASE A
FLAKE OR TWO GETS SQUEEZED OUT.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GRADIENT
FLOW APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AROUND 40 KNOT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...THINK WIND GUSTS COULD GET UP TO 45 MPH. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...DO NOT THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY
TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE AGE OF THE
SNOWPACK...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE ONE-HALF MILE
THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...UP TO
ONE INCH OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER DICKEY COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND NEW SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS IN DICKEY COUNTY. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR DICKEY COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND MENTION IT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTERWARDS A WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES COUPLE WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT
WIND/WINTER HEADLINES IN PLACE.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION END OF THIS WEEK IF ANY EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE
WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
A BAND OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 HUNDRED AGL
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ001-009-
017>020-031>034-040>046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ






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