Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 050536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO
DICKINSON. STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE FRONT HAD
DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST AS FAR AS EDDY AND NEAR FOSTER COUNTY. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HINT AT MORE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT EACH HOUR`S RUN DIFFERS ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST IT
DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED A
TONGUE OF 7 C/KM EXTENDING FROM NEAR HETTINGER TO EDDY/FOSTER
COUNTY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS REACHING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN JAMES BASIN FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
SEVERAL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCT TSRA MAY AFFECT THE KJMS TAF SITE THROUGH 11Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS AT KISN AND KDIK AROUND 09-11Z WITH CONVECTION
FROM MONTANA EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
SUNRISE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. LATER SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. SHOWERS ENDING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV


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