Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Departing shortwave and resultant weakening forcing/large scale
ascent across portions of north central ND will result in the
ongoing steady light snow to wane the rest of the afternoon.
Additional snowfall accumulations will remain at less than one
inch. Mostly cloudy and dry elsewhere.

Latest water vapor imagery shows our next shortwave trough now
ejecting out of southwest Idaho. This shortwave is forecast to
reach northern South Dakota 12z-18z Tuesday. Strongest forcing
remains in South Dakota, with fringes of it scooting into far
southwest and also into the southern James River Valley per SREF
and ECMWF. Gridded forecast has a slight chance/chc of snow and
will continue with this idea.

Another shortwave which is currently located along the British
Columbia coast will quickly arrive into northeast by 18z Tuesday.
This will support a surface low pressure and associated clipper
type cold front, spreading another chance of light snow mainly
northwest through north central Tuesday afternoon, then into south
central ND Tuesday evening/night. Expect up to one inch of
snowfall as the clipper slides through. Highs Tuesday will range
from 15F in the Turtle Mountains to around 30F southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The aforementioned clipper exits the southern James River Valley
Tuesday morning. Brisk westerly winds with gusts to 30 mph
develops across the southwest Wednesday afternoon. The active
northwest upper flow will continue with the next clipper and an
associated 100kt jet streak enhancing lift, will provide for
another round of light snow west Wednesday afternoon, then into
central ND Wednesday night. Another half to one inch will be
possible with this clipper. A chance of snow continues in the
southern James River Valley Thursday morning before ending as the
clipper departs. A brief break Thursday afternoon as the upper
level flow transitions from northwesterly to zonal. The zonal flow
will allow for a moderating trend, as high temperatures warm
through the 30s and into the mid 40s across western/central ND
Friday through Monday. It remains active through the rest of the
extended period. Another quick moving shortwave slides through
Friday with a slight chance of pops mainly north. Additional
shortwaves move through Sunday and Monday resulting in a chance of
snow and rain. Saturday right now looks dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Widespread IFR conditions continue mainly over northern portions
of the area as snow moves through. Over southern locations, mainly
MVFR ceilings remain, but these will lower overnight with areas of
IFR by later tonight into Tuesday morning.




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