Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292101
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA



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