Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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930
FXUS63 KBIS 260233
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
933 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Current forecast looks good with just updates to current
conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

While a few radar returns show up these are mainly virga and as
the evening hours continue the clouds will diminish and that
should end the virga as well. The remainder of the evening and
overnight will be dry and mostly clear. Current forecast trending
well with just an update to current conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Thunderstorm chances on Friday highlight the short term forecast.

A upper level trough from Montana through Nevada this afternoon
is forecast to propagate into the Northern Plains on Friday.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase across western and central
North Dakota Friday afternoon and into the evening, decreasing
from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. Given
marginal moisture return, severe weather is not expected. The
best chances for thunderstorms with this system are focused
across the far south central and James River Valley per agreement
on the 12 through 15 UTC global and high resolution suites.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Moderating temperatures back to normal values in the 80s Sunday
into next week highlight the extended forecast.

A slowly amplifying, broad upper central CONUS ridge is favored
on the 12 UTC global and ensemble suites Sunday into next week.
This favors the return to normal highs into the 80s across western
and central North Dakota. While, ridge running impulses will
undoubtedly be embedded in the flow to support marginal
thunderstorm chances, their predictability is low at these time
ranges.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High pressure will build into the region tonight resulting in
mainly clear skies and vfr conditions.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA



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