Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA


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