Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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519
FXUS63 KBIS 281747
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at noon, but kept a
mention of fog this afternoon northwest and north central. Made
some minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover.

UPDATE Issued at 1044 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Extended the dense fog advisory through noon. Conditions are
improving from the south. Otherwise no significant changes.

UPDATE Issued at 849 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

With mid and high clouds streaming over the area, hard to get a
good handle on the fog. From area weather cameras and
observations, the current fog advisory is not too bad. However fog
has spread back into Minot and Bismarck. Seeing that other areas
near these locales are not that low, will handle this will current
advisory, web posts and SPS if necessary.

Scattered showers continue across the far west and north central.
Expanded showers farther east along the international border to
the Bottineau area. Also raised sky cover a little over the south
central.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Trimmed the fog area and the advisory across the far north and the
south central based on current observations. Mid clouds have been
expanding across the southwest and south central and this has
dissipated the fog across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dense fog remains across much of northwestern and central North
Dakota early this morning. Fog has been slow to move much further
southwest, but has had little trouble overtaking the James Valley.
Extended the Dense Fog Advisory further south into LaMoure and
Dickey Counties this morning. There is some indication by the HRRR that
Logan and McIntosh Counties could see the dense fog within the
next few hours. So far any westward movement has been slow, so
will leave them out of the advisory for now. Fog is expected to
hang on through much of the morning across portions of central
North Dakota.

Light rain is expected to develop across western North Dakota
today as another upper level wave moves out of eastern Montana.
Light rain may slowly move into north central North Dakota later
today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A mild and active pattern continues through the long term. The
next chance for rain arrives Thursday night through Saturday. At
this time models are indicating as much as a quarter inch of rain
is possible across northern North Dakota.

Otherwise the main story will be temperatures. Wednesday and
Thursday will be warm...with some 70s possible Thursday out west.
Friday through the weekend temperatures fall back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys continue at kMOT and MVFR cigs at KISN should
be improving shortly. Otherwise vfr conditions at remaining taf
sites this afternoon into this evening. Tonight MVFR-IFR
conditions return at KMOT and possibly KISN. Late tonight patchy
fog may also spread into KDIK, KBIS and KJMS, but not as confident
in these areas so left out of these TAFs for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



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