Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222349
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
649 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Some higher wind gusts are being reported in areas where shower
activity is passing over, which corresponds with the inverted V
sounding showing up on the recent upper air balloon launch here
at the office. Have put out a special weather statement over much
of western North Dakota where most of the shower activity lingers.
Also, have added the mention of thunder over the west where some
weak instability is noted, with some lighting noticed along the
Montana and South Dakota borders. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Strong northwest winds will impact western and central North Dakota
Monday.

Through Monday a surface low will continue a northeast push into
the Northern Great Lakes region. Strong northwest winds,
associated with this system, will impact western and central ND.
Winds will increase through the early morning hours of Monday and
persist through the afternoon. Early morning gusts near 50 mph
and a chance for rain are possible in northern and central areas.
Southern areas could see 50 mph gusts through the afternoon. A
pressure rise bubble, with a 3-HR rise max of 8MB, is advertised
by the 12Z GFS/NAM to enter northwest ND between 08Z-10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are indicating peak winds at the top of the mixed layer
near 50kts across the CWA. Momentum transfer is expected as strong
cold air advection and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8C/km
accompany this system.

It is possible gusts will reach high wind warning criteria though
confidence in issuing a warning is shaky due to the strongest mix
layer winds, CAA, and steep mid-level lapse rates being slightly
misaligned.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for northwest and north central
North Dakota from 3 AM (CDT) Monday through 7 PM (CDT) Monday
evening and for southwest and south central North Dakota from 9 AM
(CDT) Monday through 7 PM (CDT) Monday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Chilly with a chance for snow later in the week.

A strong surface low/cold front is projected to move into North
Dakota Wed night/Thursday; highlighted well within the GFS/ECMWF.
Thursday looks to be another windy day, as strong CAA/gradient
forcing will likely result during and after the frontal passage. The
GFS/ECMWF suggest a rain to snow changeover late Wed night into the
day Thursday, when temperatures aloft become subzero. Blended models
have trended towards cooler daytime temperatures Thursday with 30s
west and north, 40s elsewhere. Below average temperatures are
forecast to persist Thursday through the extended, as the associated
upper level trough is forecast dig into the Northern Plains and
loiter through the weekend.

Uncertainty does remain on timing and precipitation chances, this
far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Isolated to scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms, over
western and central North Dakota may produce some stronger wind
gusts this evening. Overnight into Monday, westerly winds will
gradually shift northwest and increase, with gusts to around 50
mph possible.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Monday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-025.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Monday for NDZ020-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS



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