Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 032039
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ERODED OVER ALL SITES. SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA


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