Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED SKY
COVER MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE
COUNTIES HAS PRODUCED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST MOVED OUT OF BOTTINEAU AND ARE
CROSSING ROLETTE...WITH STRONGEST CELL QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION
SO ONLY MINOR UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. WITH CONVECTION ABOUT
TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL REMOVE THE SEVERE WORDING
FOR OUR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED 100KT JET STREAK STRETCHED
NORTH TO SOUTH IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. A POTENT SURFACE COLD FRONT ARCHING
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL SHIFT INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTH
AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MOOSOMIN SASKATCHEWAN TO BRANDON MANITOBA ARE FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE
SEVERE WORDING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SPECIFICALLY BOTTINEAU
AND ROLETTE COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z...AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. IMPRESSIVE FORECAST 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 65KT PER GFS. PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...CAPE VALUES
OF BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG NEAR AND ALONG THE BORDER WITH DCAPE
OF 700 J/KG PER SPC COULD RESULT IN STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS EARLY
IN THE EVENING. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE BY 03Z- 04Z AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR PER SPC MESOANALYSIS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR/WRF HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THAT A COUPLE CELLS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DRY AND
COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID 70S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE WELL-ADVERTISED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F...BUT THERE
IS GREAT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND BY
MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH AN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN PICK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 15-25 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH




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