000
FXUS63 KBIS 170832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS /
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT
EVEN THOSE ARE PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE NEXT H5
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST...AS THE WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AS WELL WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE H5 WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SECONDARY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE STRATUS. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
MOVING SOUTH. THE 17.00Z NAM CAPTURES THIS AREA WITH INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE H9-H8 LAYER. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP ON
THE SOUTH AND WEST PERIPHERY LATER TODAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MORE AND MORE LIKELY FROM
MID WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL UTILIZE A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY...SEVERE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BY SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PLACE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNDER THE DRY
SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ANY SLOWING IN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW WOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
CURRENT BLEND OF MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE FOR NOW AS WE STILL HAVE TIME FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS MOVING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE 17.00Z NAM SHOWS THIS WELL AND SUGGESTS
MOST AERODROMES COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CLOUDS. WILL BRING
MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL SITES EXCEPT KDIK WHICH MAY STAY ON THE
SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF THE STRATUS. FOG COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE GONE WITH 4SM BR AT
KMOT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE OTHER
SITES FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD A TEMPO / PROB30 GROUP AT THE MOMENT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CK