Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 211033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RUGBY AND HARVEY
AREAS THROUGH 2 AM CST. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE
REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP EAST OF THIS LINE AND REMAIN VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER
NOON CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT ADDED MENTION
OF -SN AFT 03Z. MORE CERTAIN ABOUT LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE KDIK
AREA AFT 20Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







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