Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW PERSISTENT CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
AS SHOWN ON NAM/GFS H850 FLOW. WITH TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IN LINE. APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BRING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE SHOWS HIGH PW
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AND HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (BOTH 99+
PERCENTILE) ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING. COSIDERING A
BUMP TO DEFINITE PROBABILITY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS INTO THE LATE EVENING TO ADDRESS
THESE. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DUE TO ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SCALED
BACK POPS JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOST MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
ISSUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY CEILING. THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WERE DISSIPATING.
ANTICIPATE WE WILL BE ABLE TO START OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
HANGING AROUND OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. DOUBT MUCH
IF ANYTHING WILL REACH THE GROUND.

CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH BREAKS
FINALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HAS REMAINED
NEARLY CLOUD FREE ALL DAY.

TONIGHT...HRRR CLOUD LAYERS INDICATE MVFR DECK CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DIMINISHING. NARRE PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR DECK REMAINING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. NAM/GFS 925MB RH
INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW STRATUS AS ONE
MIGHT THINK. WE DO GET A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT
WITH A BIT OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO MAYBE
ENOUGH MIXING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS LAYER TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS PRECIPITABLE H2O INCREASES TO OVER 1.25IN FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD BE SEEING 500-1000J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AROUND 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. WE SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ACROSS THIS REGION
TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN PLACE THAT SOME COULD BE
SEVERE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE 21Z- 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SEND SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DEPICT A NEARLY CONTINUOUS
STREAM OF THESE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
BECOME A BIT MORE LESS FREQUENT...BUT THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT:

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL MT/WY BORDER
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NE/SD/ND
AND EXTENDS INTO MANITOBA. THE BEST FORCING IN NORTH DAKOTA IS OVER
THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS
IS THE TIME THAT THE VERY STRONG CAPE AXIS BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE MT/ND BORDER. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS IS ALREADY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ARRIVES IN EASTERN MONTANA IN THE FORM OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO MONTANA.
EXPECT THAT MONDAY AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL HAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASK/MAN.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS/MOVES EAST INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH THE WARM FRONT AXIS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WINNIPEG AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ALSO MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LLJ IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE BULK
SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES DECREASE...BUT STILL REMAIN
POTENT...WITH VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THAT THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE
NORTHWEST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:

THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN AN EAST-WEST
FASHION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE BEST FORCING DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMES BEST ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 40-55 KTS
COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM FRONT AS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES REACH 3-
6K+ IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. BY
LATE AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY FROM WY TO
WESTERN NE/SD REACHES SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT ONGOING STRONG AND SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO BE MORE NUMEROUS NORTH THAN SOUTH. THEN AS
THE LATE AFTERNOON DRY SLOT MEETS UP WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH LOW/TROUGH
EXPECT QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS MORE FOCUSED LINE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY:

THE EAST-WEST WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS
A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT OF
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS REDUCED GREATLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA



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