Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A SMALLER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER THESE ARE BEING MASKED BY THE INFLUX OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT FROM
EASTERN IDAHO WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IN
TANDEM WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT H300 JET STREAK WILL
RESULT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE CURRENT
GRIDDED FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. COOL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING AS
IT HAS BE RELUCTANT TO DISSIPATE OVER SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM  CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FEW SPRINKLES ARE RELUCTANT TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CLOUD
COVER STARTING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW IS NOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS
THE SHOWERS HANGING ON THROUGH 00Z. WILL MENTION SOME SCATTED
SPRINKLES NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN COMBINATION WITH AN STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A
SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON
TUESDAY. THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPER THE MERCURY DROP
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. BUT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOWS
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR...HOWEVER AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSITIONED IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL LIKELY INCLUDE
A TEMPO GROUP AT KDIK THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY. ONLY OTHER IMPACT WOULD
BE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR KMOT...AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCFG FROM 10Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY...WITH KDIK AND KBIS ON THE FAR
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION. INCLUDED A VCSH AT KDIK BUT
NOT AT KBIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO
HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK. THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HEART RIVER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...TWH





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