Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290509
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA ACCOMPANIED BY A 70KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING/DIVING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM LAST FEW HOURS AS WANED
WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING TOPS WARMING FROM SASKATOON INTO
REGINA. THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM IS NOW VOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS OVERDONE. HAVE REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSORMS WEST OVERNIGHT. IF
SOMETHING REMOTELY DOES DEVELOP...FEEL THE COVERAGE AFFECTED WOULD
NOT JUSTIFY THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. THE OTHER UPDATE WAS TO ADD HAZE IN THE GRIDS CENTRAL
ZONES...WITH SHALLOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. JAMESTOWN
AIRPORT VISIBILITY HAS FALLEN TO 6SM AND BISMARCK HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 7SM AND 8SM. WITH STREAM OF SMOKE CONTINUING
TO TRAVEL FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECT
HAZE AND SKY OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOOKING SLIMMER. THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION IN
SASKATCHEWAN BUT WOULD TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO REACH NORTH DAKOTA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA RIDING ALONG A 70KT
JETSTREAK THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH OF GLASGOW. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A BAND OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAZY SKIES
TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COOLER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING MANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
SWING THROUGH. ONCE SUCH WAVE IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS USHER IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LEE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. BASICALLY WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO THE
PATTERN WE HAD EARLY LAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO TRAVEL INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. DEPTH OF HAZE PARTICULATES WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
REST OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 6SM. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS


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