Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front along the Canadian Border this morning will be
pushing through the forecast area today. There was weak mid level
support for the front as a short wave rides east along the
international line. Isolated rain showers in northeast Montana
this morning will move east and across the northern part of the
forecast area today. A few hundreths of an inch of rain is about
all that the system will muster.

temperatures today will vary considerably from the mostly cloudy
and behind the cold front areas of the north, to the South Dakota
border counties where some sunshine will act to moderate the air.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Wednesday is the coolest day and then temperatures trend to above
normal levels.

Zonal flow is the main story in the long term with mainly dry
weather. A short wave could clip the northern parts of the
forecast area over the coming weekend with small precipitation
chances. Above normal temperatures are forecast with about 5
degrees above average for lows to around 7 degrees above average
for highs, at least through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

a cold front across northern North Dakota will move south and will
be the focus for MVFR ceilings from KISN through KMOT. IFR
ceilings expected at KISN around daybreak Tuesday. Mesoscale
models are also hinting at a period of MVFR vsbys along the cold
front. Will monitor for now and hold off on the MVFR vsbys from
KISN through KMOT. Generally west to northwest flow through the
06 UTC TAF period.




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