Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ





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