Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST STANLEY RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
BORDER. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND BLENDED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT AREA. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING LESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER JET
OUTRUNS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE AND END
BY 14Z AS THEY CROSS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA/TRENDS THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WEAK ECHO ALREADY IN DIVIDE COUNTY
VIA STANLEY RADAR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SCOOTING OVER THE KMOT TERMINAL BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR KMOT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF KISN. REST OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE DRY. A
SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS


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