Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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985
FXUS63 KBIS 181748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

STRATO CU FORMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND MISSOURI VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH CENTRAL
AND MOSTLY SUNNY NORTHWEST. VISUAL SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS SNOW
AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MELTING BUT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MOSTLY CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

PRECIPITATION CLEARING FAST SO ENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL END FOR TODAY.
COLD TONIGHT WITH A FREEZE WARNING AGAIN REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF FROST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 32 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE 50S TUESDAY AND THE MID/UPPER 60S BY
FRIDAY.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW REFLECTED BY
GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
THAN ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATION WHICH HAVE LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. CONSEQUENTLY...GFS QPF FORECAST SPREADS HEAVIER
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE TIME FRAME
INVOLVED... FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EXITING THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. MVFR KJMS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20Z. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THIS WEEKENDS RAINS JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ADDED VCFG TO KJMS AFTER
06Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA



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