Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 041837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
12 NOON. ALL SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WIND CHILL THREAT TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR WEST THE ADVISORY WILL ENCOMPASS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE 12Z MODEL DATA AND HAVE HEADLINES
DECIDED BY THE MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12 NOON
CST. WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 BELOW TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 12 NOON CST. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TAPER
OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WIND AND
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM



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