Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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466
FXUS63 KBIS 142338
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Surface low over IA continues to move east with lingering light
rain currently exiting the southern James River Valley. All rain
should be out of the area in the next couple of hours. Otherwise
clear to partly cloudy skies this evening with diminishing winds.
Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and pops based on latest
radar and satellite. Updated latest sensible weather elements and
interpolated to mid evening values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Currently...a surface low was centered over the NE/IA border with an
inverted trough extending northward through eastern SD near
Aberdeen, to near Jamestown. At upper levels, a trough stretched
across the Canadian prairies to the western Dakotas, with its base
over Wyoming and western Colorado. Upper level impulses streaming
northeastward from the base across SD and into south central and
southeastern ND were associated with rain showers from Wyoming
across SD into southeastern ND, including some thunderstorms over
eastern SD. Closer to our area, the rain showers extended mainly
from near Wishek and Ashley in McIntosh County through Jamestown
and the James River Valley and east.

Tonight the upper level trough pushes eastward into Minnesota and
Iowa by around midnight, replacing the southwest flow aloft over ND
today with northwesterly flow tonight. An upper level shortwave in
the northwest flow aloft will dive southeast out of Alberta,
reaching northwestern ND by daybreak and moving southeast across the
state before exiting the James Valley by Sunday evening. A surface
cold front will accompany this shortwave, and brisk northwesterly
winds will develop. Bufkit soundings indicate momentum transfer from
up to H800 mb, sufficient for sustained northwest winds of 20 to 25
mph and wind gusts to 30 mph. The strongest winds will likely be in
the higher elevations of southwestern ND and also along the Coteau
east of the Missouri River.

The rain showers should exit the James Valley early this evening.
We should see gradual clearing from northwest to southeast this
evening, then increasing mid level clouds from the northwest late
tonight associated with the incoming upper level shortwave.
Overnight lows tonight in the upper 20s and lower 30s, with highs
Sunday in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry, mild conditions to
the forecast through much of the week, with daytime temperatures
reaching the 60s. A shortwave in the flow moving across the Canadian
Rockies Tuesday will allow some enhanced shortwave ridging over the
US Rockies and western Plains, allowing temperatures to warm into
the 70s across much of western and central North Dakota on Tuesday.

By late in the week, a longwave trough pushes into the west coast.
Warming ahead of this trough may bring temperatures back into the
70s on Friday. Consensus of model blends hint at this warming with
highs around 70 across the southern counties. Later model runs may
result in a warmer end to the week before chances of rain and cooler
conditions for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light rain
currently south and east of KJMS will exit the forecast area.
Clear to partly cloudy tonight and Sunday with only some mid and
high clouds expected. Winds will diminish this evening and shift
more southwest, then increase again Sunday late morning through
the afternoon 15 to 25 mph from the west to northwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH



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