Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210251
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
951 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A cold front has pushed through western and central North Dakota.
Breezy conditions over eastern portions of the forecast area will
continue to diminish this evening. Warm advection clouds pushing
into the southwest at this time but with any precipitation
remaining south and west of the forecast area. Otherwise just a
few thin high clouds over the remainder of the forecast area.

Overnight, high pressure over Saskatchewan and Manitoba will nose
southward into central and eastern North Dakota. With cold
advection, mostly clear skies for a good portion of the night,
and diminishing winds, the northeast portion of the forecast area
should see significant cooling. Utilized a blend of our current
guidance with some colder model guidance to cool things down a bit
over the north central and into the northern James River Valley.
Warmed temperatures up just a bit under the warmer cloud covered
areas of the southwest. Models are showing some light
precipitation developing after 06 UTC over the far southwest and
continuing into Tuesday morning. Utilized a blend of the latest
NAM with our consensus short term guidance for pops/qpf. Could see
some light snow accumulations in grassy areas in the far
southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Quick updated to bump winds a bit through early evening around the
Turtle Mountains. Also made some minor tweaks to sky cover, and
pops over the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Cooler temperatures on Tuesday highlight the short term forecast.

A cold front across northwest and north central North Dakota as of
20 UTC will continue to propagate southeast this afternoon and
evening with cool high pressure building behind the front across
the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. There is a
chance for light snow across extreme southwest North Dakota
tonight into Tuesday morning in association with the baroclinic
zone on the western periphery of the high.

A much cooler Tuesday is forecast compared to the last couple days
with highs in the 20s north central and the 30s elsewhere with
cool high pressure across the region. Given good agreement, a
blend of the 12 UTC global and the 14-16 UTC high resolution
suites were favored for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Above normal temperatures and light precipitation chances
highlight the extended forecast.

Given a small forecast spread, a blend of the 12 UTC global models
was used. This favors a building ridge across the region on
Wednesday, forecast to transition to split flow late next week
with a deep cut off low across the Southern Plains. This favors
above normal temperatures for much of the region with values in
the 40s and 50s by Thursday into the weekend. There is a chance
for a light rain and snow mix across much of western and central
North Dakota on Wednesday as a rapidly propagating shortwave
ejects out of the intermountain west. There is another chance for
rain on Thursday with a stronger leading wave ahead of the upper
low that will cut off across the Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Expect VFR conditions for the 00Z tafs. MVFR and some possible IFR
conditions are expected over the far southwest late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Currently guidance keeps these lower ceilings
and visibilities south and west of KDIK. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected at the remainder of the TAF sites. Diminishing
northerly winds over KMOT and KJMS this evening. Otherwise
generally light north to northeast flow tonight shifting east to
southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The Little Muddy River near Williston appears to be in the process
of cresting this afternoon as the snowpack and potential for
additional sustained runoff have been depleted. Elevated flows
were also noted on Long Creek in the Souris Basin that will be
captured by Boundary Reservoir. The Souris River near Sherwood is
also rising from releases from Alameda in the 500-700 CFS range.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH


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